This is another excellent panel from the Milken Institute Conference. It has a somewhat more investment focus than the previous one posted with discussion/predictions on the Eurozone (Greece in or out), elections, interes rates, etc.
Showing posts with label Asia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Asia. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 2
Video: Raghuram Rajan, Niall Ferguson, etc. on The Future of Capitalism
This video from the Milken Institute Conference unfortunately appears to begin after the panel has already begun and cuts abruptly, but still features a very good discussion of economic issues in the U.S., Asia, and Europe.
Monday, December 19
Tuesday, November 15
Tuesday, October 4
As Predicted U.S.-China Economic War Heating Up
Another prediction which is coming in right on schedule: this Presidential political season the one thing Republicans and Democrats can agree upon (the generally conservative Senate voted 79-19) is that China is manipulating the value of its currency to make its exports more price competitive.
We're still in the early rounds of the latest Congressional flare-up over China's currency policy, so stay tuned.
We're still in the early rounds of the latest Congressional flare-up over China's currency policy, so stay tuned.
Wednesday, September 21
Wednesday, June 15
Sunday, May 8
Investment Implications of Bin Laden's Death
Osama bin Laden was living not just within the borders of Pakistan, butwithin a mile of arguably the heart of the country's military establishment. Conspiracy theories abound, but it seems clear thatPakistan knew a lot more than it was letting on to its U.S. and NATO 'allies' operating in the region.
From 2002 to 2010, the U.S. gave $20 billion in aid to Pakistan ($13.3 billion in military and $6 billion for economic development). Over $3 billion has been requested for 2011.
At a time when Congress is sharpening its fiscal pencil, it's no surprise to see that Senators are pushing to cut Pakistan's aid. Expect calls for U.S. forces to pull-out of Afghanistan to only grow louder, which in turn will have a destabilizing effect on Pakistan and the wider region.
From 2002 to 2010, the U.S. gave $20 billion in aid to Pakistan ($13.3 billion in military and $6 billion for economic development). Over $3 billion has been requested for 2011.
At a time when Congress is sharpening its fiscal pencil, it's no surprise to see that Senators are pushing to cut Pakistan's aid. Expect calls for U.S. forces to pull-out of Afghanistan to only grow louder, which in turn will have a destabilizing effect on Pakistan and the wider region.
Investment Implications
Pakistan is classified as a 'frontier economy', and the range of pure play investment options that foreigners can easily make are limited. At present there are no U.S.-exchange traded Pakistan ETFs. However, the Aberdeen Emerging Markets Telecommunications and Infrastructure Fund, Inc. (ETF), and Guggenheim Frontier Markets ETF (FRN) both have Pakistan allocations. And not surprisingly, both have traded down since Monday's news.
Pakistan is classified as a 'frontier economy', and the range of pure play investment options that foreigners can easily make are limited. At present there are no U.S.-exchange traded Pakistan ETFs. However, the Aberdeen Emerging Markets Telecommunications and Infrastructure Fund, Inc. (ETF), and Guggenheim Frontier Markets ETF (FRN) both have Pakistan allocations. And not surprisingly, both have traded down since Monday's news.
Continue reading the full article at SeekingAlpha here.
Saturday, April 30
Video: Niall Ferguson moderated debate: 'Out of Europe? The United States in an Asian age'
Speakers: Professor Michael Cox, Professor Arne Westad
Chair: Professor Niall Ferguson
This event was recorded on 2 March 2011 in Old Theatre, Old Building Niall Ferguson argues that the world is now being shaped more by the emerging economies of the East than by the once dominant West. But within the West another kind of power shift is taking place, one that leads to the growing irrelevance of Europe. Is this true? And does it really matter? Michael Cox is professor of international relations at LSE and codirector of LSE IDEAS. Arne Westad is professor of international history at LSE and co-director of LSE IDEAS. Niall Ferguson is Philippe Roman Chair in History and International Affairs at LSE IDEAS for 2010-11.
Friday, March 18
Video: A Bleak Long-Term Economic Picture for Japan?
I'll admit up front that I don't have a ready prediction that X will happen by Y date. But here are some of the macro elements to keep in mind:
1. Japan is a major surplus country, meaning it produces and sells much more than it consumes. Much of the savings the country generates, which have to go somewhere, have been invested at home in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) and abroad in U.S. dollar denominated assets. Alongside China, Japan is the second largest holder of U.S. treasury debt with as almost $1 trillion in holdings.
2. While Japan has a breathtaking 200%+ public debt/GDP ratio (the highest in the developed world), 94% of that debt is Japanese owned. What this means, basically, is that so long as the Japanese keep buying JGBs then Japan's fiscal future is in its own hands. In contrast, the U.S. depends on foreigners to finance a large portion of its federal deficit. The thrifty Japanese save enough to finance their Keynesian stimulus policies all by themselves and still have plenty left over to spot Uncle Sam!
Now, the Japanese savings rate has been steadily declining to what would seem an unsustainable level in terms of maintaining the current fiscal course.
Continue reading the full article published on SeekingAlpha here.
Tuesday, March 15
Tuesday, March 1
Video: On the Winnability of Asian Land Wars
In the below classic 'Battle of Wits' scene from the movie The Princess Bride, Vizzini was *dead* wrong on his advice to "never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line".
(For anyone not familiar with this movie and/or the full sequence of events which lead up to this scene's punch line, here's a link to a full-scene length clip.)
Are Vizzini, outgoing Defense Secretary Robert Gates, and STRATFOR also wrong about getting involved in a land war in Asia?
Alexander the Great, for one, may possibly wish to posthumously beg to differ.
(For anyone not familiar with this movie and/or the full sequence of events which lead up to this scene's punch line, here's a link to a full-scene length clip.)
Are Vizzini, outgoing Defense Secretary Robert Gates, and STRATFOR also wrong about getting involved in a land war in Asia?
Alexander the Great, for one, may possibly wish to posthumously beg to differ.
Monday, February 28
Chimerica or Chindia: Who Will Dominate the 21st Century?
Some of the key pieces of data highlighted in the article:
- Demographic trends (e.g., China's 1.2 males/female ratio suggest social instability)
- China’s workforce peaks in absolute terms in four years
- Birth rates: Beijing and Shanghai are 1.0, Korea is 1.1, Singapore 1.2, Germany 1.3, Poland 1.3, Italy 1.4, Russia 1.4 with the U.S. coming in around the population replenishment rate of 2.1
- Environmental catastrophe: China's growth rate of 10% is outstripped by 13.5% in GDP equivalent eco-damage)
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