Wednesday, December 22
Tuesday, December 21
Guest Post: Taking Stock of WikiLeaks
By George Friedman, STRATFOR
Julian Assange has declared that geopolitics will be separated into pre-“Cablegate” and post-“Cablegate” eras. That was a bold claim. However, given the intense interest that the leaks produced, it is a claim that ought to be carefully considered. Several weeks have passed since the first of the diplomatic cables were released, and it is time now to address the following questions: First, how significant were the leaks? Second, how could they have happened? Third, was their release a crime? Fourth, what were their consequences? Finally, and most important, is the WikiLeaks premise that releasing government secrets is a healthy and appropriate act a tenable position?
Let’s begin by recalling that the U.S. State Department documents constituted the third wave of leaks. The first two consisted of battlefield reports from Iraq and Afghanistan. Looking back on those as a benchmark, it is difficult to argue that they revealed information that ran counter to informed opinion. I use the term “informed opinion” deliberately. For someone who was watching Iraq and Afghanistan with some care over the previous years, the leaks might have provided interesting details but they would not have provided any startling distinction between the reality that was known and what was revealed. If, on the other hand, you weren’t paying close attention, and WikiLeaks provided your first and only view of the battlefields in any detail, you might have been surprised.
Julian Assange has declared that geopolitics will be separated into pre-“Cablegate” and post-“Cablegate” eras. That was a bold claim. However, given the intense interest that the leaks produced, it is a claim that ought to be carefully considered. Several weeks have passed since the first of the diplomatic cables were released, and it is time now to address the following questions: First, how significant were the leaks? Second, how could they have happened? Third, was their release a crime? Fourth, what were their consequences? Finally, and most important, is the WikiLeaks premise that releasing government secrets is a healthy and appropriate act a tenable position?
Let’s begin by recalling that the U.S. State Department documents constituted the third wave of leaks. The first two consisted of battlefield reports from Iraq and Afghanistan. Looking back on those as a benchmark, it is difficult to argue that they revealed information that ran counter to informed opinion. I use the term “informed opinion” deliberately. For someone who was watching Iraq and Afghanistan with some care over the previous years, the leaks might have provided interesting details but they would not have provided any startling distinction between the reality that was known and what was revealed. If, on the other hand, you weren’t paying close attention, and WikiLeaks provided your first and only view of the battlefields in any detail, you might have been surprised.
Who's Confused: the Atheists, or the Agnostics?
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| Ricky Gervais |
Ricky's explanation for his atheism brings to mind a question I've previously raised with individuals who claim that their atheism, like Ricky's, is rooted in scientific rational thought.
A little over a decade ago during Alan Grenspan's heyday -- a time when I would like to believe that I was not only younger but also much less wiser -- my question even managed to get me thrown out of the Ayn Rand Institute in Southern California.
Here's the short story: after asking the managing director a sincere question about about the atheism of the institute's namesake, I was quickly escorted to the exit with his parting words "I don't have time to be talking to mystics".
Ricky believes God does not exist because there is no provable, scientific evidence which verifies the existence of God. No argument here from me on this point.
My question is this: what scientific evidence does Ricky have to counter the belief that God does in fact exist? The answer is none. Ergo, the logical default is not in fact to be an atheist, but to be an agnostic.
Atheists -- by believing that God does not exist -- are making the same error in logic which believers in God make. Neither of them have scientific evidence to support their beliefs. So the only logical consistent and scientifically supported view is agnosticism.
Are the science-believing atheists simply confused? Or is it the science believing agnostics, like myself, who have it all wrong?
I'll close with an interesting atheist/agnostic factoid and another question: in the U.S. Congress it appears that every 'major' minority group in the United States is represented. There are jews, muslims, blacks, latinos, asians, homosexuals, disabled, left-handed, etc.
However, there is not a single avowed atheist or agnostic among the 535 members of Congress. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is rumored to be an atheist, but to my knowledge he has never publicly outed himself as one.
Given that atheists and agnostics represent perhaps as much as 5-10% of the U.S. population, would it be fair to say that atheists and/or agnostics are discriminated against? And in regards to election to the U.S. Congress, is there a reason why they are discriminated against more than any of the other 'major' minority groups?
Monday, December 20
Friday, December 17
Video: The Daily Show on Printing Money
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
| The Big Bank Theory | ||||
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Sunday, December 12
Wall Street Collusion: Secretive Banking Elite Rules Trading in Derivatives
Must read NY Times article on how the Too 'Bigger' to Fail megabanks control and manipulate the multi-trillion derivatives market.
An excerpt from the article:
An excerpt from the article:
and the money graphic:“On the third Wednesday of every month, the nine members of an elite Wall Street society gather in Midtown Manhattan.The men share a common goal: to protect the interests of big banks in the vast market for derivatives, one of the most profitable — and controversial — fields in finance. They also share a common secret: The details of their meetings, even their identities, have been strictly confidential.Drawn from giants like JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the bankers form a powerful committee that helps oversee trading in derivatives, instruments which, like insurance, are used to hedge risk. In theory, this group exists to safeguard the integrity of the multitrillion-dollar market. In practice, it also defends the dominance of the big banks.The banks in this group, which is affiliated with a new derivatives clearinghouse, have fought to block other banks from entering the market, and they are also trying to thwart efforts to make full information on prices and fees freely available.”
Video: 2010 Reflections - So Long, Palm (and your funky, avant-bizare ads)
Palm, the innovative silicon valley shop which produced both the world's first blockbuster PDA (the Palm Pilot) and true smartphone (the Treo), went the way of the dodo bird in 2010. Their latest smartphone, the Pre, was a victim of the iPhone's success; Palm was acquired in 2010 by HP for a modest sum.
In remembrance of the firm that was -- and in remembering that there is definitely a line between creative and creepy advertising -- here are a few of the Pre's more memorable (to put it politely) television ads.
In remembrance of the firm that was -- and in remembering that there is definitely a line between creative and creepy advertising -- here are a few of the Pre's more memorable (to put it politely) television ads.
Friday, December 10
Play the ECB's New Monetary Policy Game
The European Central Bank's previously released web-based game (ironically titled 'Euro Run') must have been a smashing success because it has created yet another game. This latest one allows you play armchair central banker; a virtual Ben Bernanke or Jean-Claude Trichet so to speak.
Question: which of the following would you rather have your central bank investing time/energy in and printing money to pay for:
a. recently released comic book created by the New York Fed
b. the ECB's above video games
c. none of the above
Question: which of the following would you rather have your central bank investing time/energy in and printing money to pay for:
a. recently released comic book created by the New York Fed
b. the ECB's above video games
c. none of the above
Video: 2010 Reflections Kickoff - In Memoriam Benoît Mandelbrot
Music: Satisfaction of Oscillation by Dajuin Yao
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