Rogoff: Germany Must Construct a 'Firewall' Around Spanish and Italian Debt

Full post here; graphic below of what Germany and the 'troika' can afford.

Will Central Bankers Have the Same Courage On the Way Out?

Exit interview here with outgoing Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, who openly discusses his skepticism of QE2, how inflation is the cruelest tax of all, and other topics.

On the Fed's long talked about but still distant plan to 'exit', or unwind, its unprecedented monetary stimulus, he states "Central bankers must have the same courage on the way out that they had going in".

But just how likely is that? Given the current unemployment situation, and the Fed's dual mandate of stable prices and low unemployment, the Fed seems destined to remain in neutral or biased towards putting it's foot back on the money printing pedal.

The Fed has now surpassed China as the largest holder of government debt and has made it abundantly clear that its weak U.S. dollar policy, hashed in the interest of kickstarting exports, is not really open to negotiation.

Bottom line: don't expect the Fed to have the same courage when (or if) it belatedly decides to exit its massive monetary stimulus.

In Greece, Locals Rule

Harvard Professor Dani Rodrik clearly spells out the bottom line on Greece:

History suggests...when the demands of financial markets and foreign creditors clash with those of domestic workers, pensioners, and the middle class, it is usually the locals who have the last say.

Rodrik's full post here, and video you won't see on most main stream media below.

Can the U.S. Government Stop Silk Road and Bitcoin?

No sooner than a week after widespread news broke describing Silk Road, a website which some are calling the Amazon.com of online illegal drugs, we have two U.S. Senators seeking to pull-the-plug on the site and the peer-to-peer virtual currency used to pay for drugs called Bitcoin.

ArsTechnica has a nice summary of Bitcoin:

Bitcoin is a virtual currency, designed to allow people to buy and sell without centralized control by banks or governments, and it allows for pseudonymous transactions which aren't tied to a real identity. In keeping with the hacker ethos, Bitcoin has no need to trust any central authority; every aspect of the currency is confirmed and secured through the use of strong cryptography. 

Over the last few months, Bitcoin's value has risen by an order of magnitude as the sagas of Wikileaks and Anonymous (among others) have highlighted the limits of a financial system which relies on centralized intermediaries. With a current estimated market capitalization of about $100 million, Bitcoin has recently graduated from a theoretical techno-anarchic project patronized by libertarians and hackers to a full-fledged currency prompting comment from technologists and economists. At the time of this writing, one Bitcoin (BTC) is worth about US$15.

Here's the original Bitcoin white paper published by Satoshi Nakamoto.

Can the U.S. Government Stop Silk Road and Bitcoin?

Government has had success shutting down centrally managed peer-to-peer services, like Napster. However, 'pure' peer-to-peer sites like Gnutella and Tor, have proven more difficult. Data and services can simply move from a server in one country to another, and pure peer-to-peer is widely distributed by it's very nature. In short, it could prove extremely difficult for the DEA to take down Silk Road.

Bitcoin, however, does link back to actual bank accounts, which perhaps leaves more room for the government to maneuver.

I should have more to say on Bitcoin in the not too distant future.

The Flaw Movie Trailer

The Guardian reviews and compares this film to Charle's Ferguson's Academy Award winning Inside Job here.

Video: Niall Ferguson on Trichet's Call for a Centralized Eurozone Finance Ministry

Trichet's latest move smacks of "desperation" and may hint at just how perilous the ECB's balance sheet is with respect to its European periphery (aka PIIGS) debt holdings.

 Full video here.

Was putting a man-on-the-moon peculiarly un-American?

First-image of ISS docking by a soon-to-retire U.S. space shuttle

The Economist has an interesting read on the 50-year anniversary of President Kennedy's speech which set a goal of putting a man-on-the-moon within a decade.

Here's the key excerpt:

He (Kennedy) set out to make America’s achievements in space an emblem of national greatness, and the project succeeded. Yet it did not escape the notice of critics even at the time that this entailed an irony. The Apollo programme, which was summoned into being in order to demonstrate the superiority of the free-market system, succeeded by mobilising vast public resources within a centralised bureaucracy under government direction. In other words, it mimicked aspects of the very command economy it was designed to repudiate. 

That may be why subsequent efforts to transfer the same fixity of purpose to broader spheres of peacetime endeavour have fallen short. If we can send a man to the moon, people ask, why can’t we [fill in the blank]? Lyndon Johnson tried to build a “great society”, but America is better at aeronautical engineering than social engineering. Mr Obama, pointing to competition from China, invokes a new “Sputnik moment” to justify bigger public investment in technology and infrastructure. It should not be a surprise that his appeals have gone unheeded. Putting a man on the moon was a brilliant achievement. But in some ways it was peculiarly un-American—almost, you might say, an aberration born out of the unique circumstances of the cold war. It is a reason to look back with pride, but not a pointer to the future.

Barring a crisis or existential threat, are the prospects for the U.S. undertaking an ambitious, focussed transition to a sustainable energy based system, or an affordable healthcare system, extremely remote?

In short, was the U.S.'s Race to the Moon success, as The Economist puts it, a 'glorious one-off'?

Rogoff: 'Sovereignty and currency co-habitation do not mix'

Reflecting on the latest twists and turns in the Eurozone debt crisis here are some other choice quotes from Professor Rogoff's FT editorial:

• the euro is looking very much like a system that amplifies shocks rather than absorbs them
• even if the euro system was not at the heart of the crisis, it needs to be able to withstand two standard deviation shocks
• markets are more worried about the US’s lack of a plan A than Europe’s lack of plan B
• It is sometimes said that the euro is a creature of politics that would never be justified by economics. The present episode could well turn this statement on its head.

Full editorial here, and here is a recent Charlie Rose panel discussion he participated in with Paul Krugman and others.

War on Drugs, Say Hello to Silk Road: the Amazon.com of Illegal Drugs

On a day when a number of former and current leaders from around the world are calling to end the failed War on Drugs, Gawker has a story about a website where you can readily purchase illegal drugs and have them shipped right to your doorstep.

The site is called Silk Road, but finding it is not as simple as typing the name into Google and clicking:

The URL seems made to be forgotten...It's only accessible through the anonymizing network TOR, which requires a bit of technical skill to configure.

 How can you trust what you buy there?

Once you're there, it's hard to believe that Silk Road isn't simply a scam. Such brazenness is usually displayed only by those fake "online pharmacies" that dupe the dumb and flaccid. There's no sly, Craigslist-style code names here.

Silk Road cuts down on scams with a reputation-based trading system familiar to anyone who's used Amazon or eBay. The user Bloomingcolor appears to be an especially trusted vendor, specializing in psychedelics. One happy customer wrote on his profile: "Excellent quality. Packing, and communication. Arrived exactly as described." They gave the transaction five points out of five.

And here's what's available for purchase: 

Here is just a small selection of the 340 items available for purchase on Silk Road by anyone, right now: a gram of Afghani hash; 1/8th ounce of "sour 13" weed; 14 grams of ecstasy; .1 grams tar heroin. A listing for "Avatar" LSD includes a picture of blotter paper with big blue faces from the James Cameron movie on it. The sellers are located all over the world, a large portion from the U.S. and Canada.

Transactions are conducted with a semi-anonymous online currency known as Bitcoins:

Bitcoins have been called a "crypto-currency," the online equivalent of a brown paper bag of cash. Bitcoins are a peer-to-peer currency, not issued by banks or governments, but created and regulated by a network of other bitcoin holders' computers. (The name "Bitcoin" is derived from the pioneering file-sharing technology Bittorrent.) They are purportedly untraceable and have been championed by cyberpunks, libertarians and anarchists who dream of a distributed digital economy outside the law, one where money flows across borders as free as bits.

Although...

Jeff Garzik, a member of the Bitcoin core development team, says...that bitcoin is not as anonymous as the denizens of Silk Road would like to believe. He explains that because all Bitcoin transactions are recorded in a public log, though the identities of all the parties are anonymous, law enforcement could use sophisticated network analysis techniques to parse the transaction flow and track down individual Bitcoin users. 

Whether or not Silk Road succeeds in remaining in business, it does point out yet another difficulty of enforcing illegal drug laws.

In many states, like California, prison costs have overtaken funding for higher education due to the internment of people associated with the War on Drugs. We need to reverse this trend.

There must be a better policy than the one we currently have. It's time to fundamentally rethink the War on Drugs.

Bill Gross Harps on Financial Repression

Picking up right where he left off last month, the Bond King's latest letter sounds-off on how financial repression is a bad deal for U.S. treasury investors.