Video: Niall Ferguson on Nuclear Weapons and Human Rights

1 March 2011 (Part 4 in the lecture series)



Speaker: Professor Niall Ferguson
Chair: Professor Michael Cox

This event was recorded on 1 March 2011 in Old Theatre, Old Building

The decisive breakthroughs in the Cold War occurred in seemingly unrelated fields -- nuclear arms control and human rights. But was the collapse of communism a reflection of imperial overstretch or the result of liberal aspirations for freedom? This event celebrates the publication of Professor Ferguson's new book Civilization: The West and the Rest. Niall Ferguson is Philippe Roman Chair in History and International Affairs at LSE IDEAS for 2010-11.

Video: Niall Ferguson moderated debate: 'Out of Europe? The United States in an Asian age'

Speakers: Professor Michael Cox, Professor Arne Westad
Chair: Professor Niall Ferguson

This event was recorded on 2 March 2011 in Old Theatre, Old Building Niall Ferguson argues that the world is now being shaped more by the emerging economies of the East than by the once dominant West. But within the West another kind of power shift is taking place, one that leads to the growing irrelevance of Europe. Is this true? And does it really matter? Michael Cox is professor of international relations at LSE and codirector of LSE IDEAS. Arne Westad is professor of international history at LSE and co-director of LSE IDEAS. Niall Ferguson is Philippe Roman Chair in History and International Affairs at LSE IDEAS for 2010-11.

Video: Keynes vs. Hayek, Round Two

Below is the third installment in the fantastic Keynes vs. Hayek rap-offs. For the original and follow-up click here.

Video: Barry Eichengreen at Bretton Woods on the Past and Future International Monetary Order

And the accompanying Q&A for Barry's panel, which included Keynes biographer Lord Robert Skidelsky.

Video: Ken Rogoff on the Problem of Too Much Debt at Bretton Woods

Film Review: Transcendent Man & Reflections on San Francisco Premiere

Ray Kurzweil in Transcendent Man

On Thursday evening I attended a showing of the film Transcendent Man at the San Francisco Palace of Fine Arts. The evening included a pre and post-film talk/Q&A with the film's star, Ray Kurzweil, and the director, Barry Ptolemy. Peter Diamandis of the X Prize Foundation was also on hand to moderate.

Here are my thoughts on the film:

• The film is well made and provides a very up-close and personal look at inventor, scientist and futurist Ray Kurzweil, including a tour to Ray's home, his 200 vitamins-a-day regimen, and a moving visit to his father's grave.
• In terms of the content level it aims for a more general audience, making the film accessible to non-science types. You'll see a few graphs but you won't find any math equations or overly technical jargon in the movie.
• The film provides an intimate look at some of Ray's and the Singularity's more interesting proponents and critics, such as Kevin Kelly (founder and 'Chief Maverick' of Wired) and Dr. William Hurlbut, Professor of Neuroscience at Stanford University (who was in attendance).
• If you're someone who is already familiar with Ray's exponential technology development forecasts and his ideas about the Singularity you might find some of the the content less fresh, even repetitive. However, if you're a fan the I think you will still really enjoy the film.
• One criticism I have of the film and Ray is that while there is ample mention of the many predictions Ray has been right about (e.g., predicting in the early 1980s that a computer would beat the best human chess player by the late 1990s), there was no mention of Ray's wrong predictions. Predicting the fall of the Soviet Union and other happenings is impressive, but it would be even more impressive if I knew more about Ray's overall track record.
• Another question I have is the potential bias Ray brings to his forecasting. It cannot be overlooked that Ray is projecting that radical life extension will arrive within his expected lifetime. How much does Ray's self-optimism factor into this timing forecast?

And some thoughts on the overall event and what it's like to meet Ray:

• The Palace of Fine Arts event (not surprisingly) attracted an eclectic, rather geeky crowd. In terms of demographics, largely caucasian with a wide age distribution.
• What was surprising was that unlike the previous showings in London, New York, LA, etc. the San Francisco event (the last in the tour) did not come close to selling-out. This is particularly surprising as the San Francisco Bay Area is arguably Ground Zero for the Singularity movement. Whether this was due to the fact that there was a previous San Jose showing in February, or that the film has been available on iTunes for awhile now, is unclear. Back-to-back showings in LA both sold out.
• A couple interesting points made during the Q&A: 
• Ray stated that there is a mistaken perception that technological progress is occurring much faster with hardware than software.
• The cost of solar power is quickly approaching the cost of fossil fuels.
• Ray stated that technology is a "doubled-edged sword" and does not dismiss potential dangers to the human race to advancements in technology.
• Ray says he reads all his email and tends to make decisions about big things (like Barry's movie proposal) quickly and agonize over small things, like where to eat lunch.
• Ray was very generous with his time throughout the evening. There was a pre-movie meet and greet where I was able to speak with Ray in person. I confessed to Ray that I haven't been as disciplined in following the diet advice in his excellent health book, Fantastic Voyage, as I would like. 
• Ray is one of the most even-keeled people I've ever met. He is also is very diplomatic and kind with his responses during the Q&A.

Overall, I highly recommend seeing Transcendent Man. The film is currently available for viewing on iTunes, online here, or you can purchase the DVD through the 'Good Books and Films' section on the right side of this blog. 

For more from me on life extension, the Singularity and Ray click here.

Video: Simon Johnson Rips Too Big to Fail at Bretton Woods

Video: Niall Ferguson's Presentation at Bretton Woods

Update: here is Ferguson's panel Q&A, which also features Chrystia Freeland, George Akerlof, Andres Velasco, and Min Zhu.