Why Italy Isn't In Such Bad Shape, But the U.S. and UK Are

Bill Gross runs PIMCO's huge flagship bond fund which, having engaged in an untimely shorting of U.S. Treasuries, has hit a bit of a rough patch in recent times. Some have suggested that the 69-year old might be a few years past the recommended portfolio manager retirement age and that it's no longer as useful as it once was to read his monthly investment newsletters.

Think again.

While Gross's timing on shorting U.S. treasuries has been poor, and his revealing in this month's column of memory issues is a little unnerving, his analysis of the fundamentals and medium to long-term sovereign fiscal picture remains sound.

Take his updated 'Ring of Fire II' chart, the first version of which he first published a few years back. The chart (below) plots countries by both their annual public sector deficit (y-axis), which is the difference between government spending and taxes, and what is termed a 'fiscal gap' (x-axis). The fiscal gap takes into account future expenditures, which in the U.S.'s case include entitlements such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

As you can see from the chart Italy appears to be in better fiscal shape than several 'Ring of Fire' members like the U.S., Japan and the UK.  How is this possible? Italy has been experiencing what economists refer to as a 'speculative attack' from the sovereign bond market, while the three Ring of Fire countries are currently enjoying record low yields on their government debt. 

Continue reading the full article here.

Video: Richard Duncan on The New Depression

"Those whom the gods would destroy, they first encourage to borrow cheaply"

Today's must read on the next financial panic.

Video: Happy Memorial Day

Memorial Day is a time for Americans to say thank you to those who have served and are serving in the U.S. armed forces, and to remember in particular those who have been killed or injured in the line of duty. If you know someone in the U.S. service it takes just a few moments to say thank you and it really is appreciated by those who serve. 

And even if you don't agree with the Afghanistan war or other U.S. military activities that are currently underway remember that as Vietnam General William Westmoreland said, “The (U.S.) military don’t start wars. Politicians start wars.”

Memorial Day is also a good time to reflect on war in general and the tremendous suffering and destruction it causes. While there is still war we should not stop asking what are its root causes, and what more can we do to try and prevent it? 

The question of why war occurs is no doubt complex with many factors, but one component to keep in mind is the sheer size and business of war, and the affect it has on the livelihoods of millions of people.

Many are familiar with President Eisenhower's 1961 farewell address, and his famous warning about the 'Military-Industrial Complex'. If you haven't watched his full speech it is well worth the 15 minutes of your time.

Ike, a well respected leader with impeccable military credentials, was in a strong position to offer up such a warning.

One wonders if we'll ever see another Ike, or FDR, or TDR or Truman as U.S. President. One has the impression that they just don't make them like that anymore.

Happy Free Positive PR for UK Banks Day!

One somewhat peculiar difference between the U.S. and UK is how in the UK (and Ireland) official public holidays are referred to as 'bank holidays'. From Wikipedia:

A bank holiday is a public holiday in the United Kingdom or a colloquialism for public holiday in Ireland. The first official bank holidays were the four days named in the Bank Holidays Act 1871, but today the term is colloquially...used for public holidays which are not officially bank holidays, for example Good Friday and Christmas Day.

I have no idea whether Brits on whole form any positive associations towards banks because of this, but if nothing else it strikes me as some nice free, positive advertising for our friendly, neighborhood Too Big to Fail banks.

Here's an idea: perhaps renaming 'bank holiday' to 'public holiday', or something similar, would allow a pol to campaign on a symbolic, anti-banker message that also poses low-to-no risk to the establishment.

Video: Ferguson, Rattner, Murray, etc. on What's Happened to the American Dream?

Video: El-Erian, Buiter, Warsh, etc. on Economic Growth

This is another excellent panel from the Milken Institute Conference. It has a somewhat more investment focus than the previous one posted with discussion/predictions on the Eurozone (Greece in or out), elections, interes rates, etc.

Video: Raghuram Rajan, Niall Ferguson, etc. on The Future of Capitalism

This video from the Milken Institute Conference unfortunately appears to begin after the panel has already begun and cuts abruptly, but still features a very good discussion of economic issues in the U.S., Asia, and Europe.

How Some U.S. States Subsidize Other States

With the political battle over government spending raging across the globe the story of how some U.S. states are subsidizing others is getting more attention.

Here is a good post on this topic from the NY Times Economix blog with several useful links, as well as the below chart showing how much extra federal spending each state receives beyond each federal tax dollar paid into the federal government by that same state's taxpayers.

(click to enlarge)

And here is a map plotting the above data.

(click to enlarge)

From the chart and map you can see that in 2005 the state of New Mexico received back over twice the amount of money it paid into the federal government. 

In contrast, the state of New Jersey received $0.61 back on every dollar it paid into the federal government. 

In short, the New Jerseyans are subsidizing the New Mexicans via tax transfers conducted at the federal level.

Another observation is that just 17 states received back less than what they paid in while 32 received more back (Rhode Island received back exactly what it paid in). In other words, a minority of states are subsidizing the majority.

More from the NY Times:

Readers contemplating the table will discover in it a certain paradox — that those residents who most often denounce big government and call for sharp cuts in government spending often benefit themselves from such spending or live in regions that receive significant government support. This was also noted by the Tax Foundation. In presenting the data in the form of a geographic map, the foundation wryly observes: 

As you can see from the map, states that get the “worst deal” — that is, have the lowest ratio of federal spending to taxes paid — are generally high-income states either on the coasts or with robust urban areas (such as Illinois and Minnesota). Perhaps not coincidentally, these “donor” states also tend to vote for Democrat candidates in national elections. Similarly, many states that get the “best deal” are lower-income states in the Midwest and South with expansive rural areas that tend to vote Republican.

In other words, there is correlation between the above map and the below map which shows general U.S. Presidential voting patterns for Republicans (dark red solidly Republican, light red leans Republican) and Democrats (dark blue solidly Democrat, light blue leans Democrat), and white states a toss up.

Bottom line: the subject of some states, which primarily vote Democrat in the Presidential election, subsidizing Republican voting states is a topic that could generate significant political friction in the years ahead.

Video: Simon Johnson's White House Burning

Why is the U.S. Government Still Hiding Financial Crisis Documents?

Here here to former Lazard partner turned Wall St. author/historian William Cohan and his fighting the good fight to obtain public documents from the U.S. government related to financial firms such as Goldman Sachs.

Enemies: A History of the FBI - Podcast by Pulitzer Prize Winner Tim Weiner

An excellent talk on his new book about the FBI from the author of Legacy of Ashes, the must read Pulitzer Prize winning history of the CIA.

Regarding the FBI, here is Wired's story of one tech company's efforts to prevent the Bureau from obtaining information about its customers, via a National Security Letter (NSL), which legally prevents those customers from being informed by the company that the FBI is seeking information about them. Here is a brief excerpt from Wired's article:

In 2007, a Justice Department Inspector General audit found that the FBI, which issued almost 200,000 NSLs between 2003 and 2006, had indeed abused its authority and misused NSLs. 

The inspector general found that the FBI evaded limits on (and sometimes illegally issued) NSLs to obtain phone, e-mail and financial information on American citizens, and that it had also underreported the use of NSLs to Congress. In 2006 alone, the FBI issued more than 49,000 NSLs, but that number dropped dramatically to 16,804 in 2007 following the inspector general’s report. After the Justice Department claimed it instituted reforms to address the legal lapses, the number of NSLs issued increased to 24,744 in 2008. In 2010, the most recent year for which statistics are available, the FBI issued 24,287 NSLs.

Without any further adieu, here is Tim Weiner's podcast.

Speaker(s): Tim Weiner
Chair: Professor George Gaskell

Recorded on 13 March 2012 in Hong Kong Theatre, Clement House.

The United States is a country founded on the ideals of democracy and freedom, yet throughout the last century it has used secret and lawless methods to destroy its enemies. The Federal Bureau of Investigation is the most powerful of these forces. Following his award-winning history of the C.I.A., Legacy of Ashes, Tim Weiner has now written the first full history of the F.B.I. as a secret intelligence service, Enemies: A History of the FBI| which he will talk about in this lecture. Drawn entirely from firsthand materials in the F.B.I.'s own files, Enemies brilliantly brings to life the entire story, from the cracking of anarchist cells to the prosecution of the 'war on terror'. It is the story of America's war against spies, subversives and saboteurs - and the self-inflicted wounds American democracy suffered in battle. Throughout the book lies the long shadow of J. Edgar Hoover, who ran the F.B.I. with an iron fist for forty-eight years. He was not a monster, but a brilliant confidence man who ruled by fear, force, and fraud. His power shaped America; his legacy haunts it.

Tim Weiner is a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist at the New York Times, where he has reported from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sudan and fifteen other nations. He was based for a decade in Washington, DC, where he covered the C.I.A. and the Military - the latter topic being the subject of his Blank Check: The Pentagon's Black Budget. He is the author of the bestselling Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA, which won the 2007 National Book Award for Non-Fiction.

Video: Niall Ferguson's China: Triumph and Turmoil

Link to video here. (Non UK-based viewers will need to use a proxy.)

For more on the subject of China and the West here is Standpoint's recent interview with Niall and Dambisa Moyo.

Video: Niall Ferguson Interviews Peter Thiel

Video: Israeli Apartheid

As the U.S. contemplates joining Israel in a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities I wonder how many Americans are aware of or stop to think about Israeli apartheid?

The topic of Israeli apartheid in occupied Palestinian territories is a controversial subject which doesn't get much public attention in the U.S., but below are some excerpts of interviews with former U.S. President Jimmy Carter's thoughts on the topic.

Video: Phase Three of the Global Crisis

This is from a year ago but still worthwhile if you haven't seen it.

Speaker: Paul Mason

This event was recorded on 31 January 2011 in Sheikh Zayed Theatre, New Academic Building

As countries adopt competitive exit strategies from the global crisis Paul Mason surveys the political economy of a flat recovery. He argues that mainstream economics have still refused to draw the lessons of asset price bubbles and situates the divergent recovery, east and west, within a long-wave explanation of the crisis. Paul Mason is the award-winning economics editor of BBC Newsnight, covering an agenda he describes as 'profit, people and planet' and author of the Idle Scrawl blog , which was shortlisted for the Orwell Prize 2009. His first book, Live Working or Die Fighting: How the Working Class Went Global, was longlisted for the Guardian First Book Award. This event marks the publication of his latest book Meltdown: The End of the Age of Greed.

2012 Prediction #4: Romney Will Not Win the U.S. Presidency

It's looking like Romney has the Republican nomination, but I am very doubtful that he can carry the country in 2012 for a whole variety of reasons:

1. U.S. economic figures are showing signs of life, at just the right time.
2. Like Eichengreen, Dalio, and others, I think the next leg down in the ongoing financial crisis won't make landfall until 2013 at the earliest.
3. There is a decided lack of enthusiasm about Romney. He comes across as a Wall St. guy who, policy wise, isn't all that different from Obama. He also isn't well liked by the Republican base. In short, Romney seems positioned somewhere in political no-man's land.
4. There is a reasonable chance for a third party candidate to be a factor, and should that happen it will work against Romney more than Obama.
5. Even if Eurogeddon boils over the world's central banks have plenty of space to deploy more monetary artillery. Central banker hands won't begin to be tied until core inflation starts to increase significantly, and that's unlikely to happen over the next 10 months. Even though Bernanke was appointed originally by a Republican, he would probably prefer that Obama (who reappointed him) be reelected given Romney's and general Republican hostility towards the Fed.
6. An Iranian conflict (perhaps the biggest X-factor in 2012) likely favors the incumbent as it would provide Obama with an opportunity to exercise leadership and look presidential.

What could upset this prediction is any material economic deterioration or a geopolitical flub by Obama.

Video: Goodbye, Geithner!

Should Obama be re-elected call me sceptical that we'll get someone better than Turbo Tax Timmy, but in the meantime lets all shout a collective Hallelujah!

Video of Geithner breaking the news that he won't be around next term after the jump:

Podcast: Philip Coggan's Paper Promises - Money, Debt and the New World Order

Below is the podcast of Coggan's book talk, and here is a good review of Paper Promises.

Speaker(s): Philip Coggan

Chair: Professor Christopher Polk

Recorded on 19 January 2012 in Sheikh Zayed Theatre, New Academic Building.

The world is drowning in debt. Greece is on the verge of default. In Britain, the coalition government is pushing through an austerity programme in the face of economic weakness. The US government almost shut down in August because of a dispute over the size of government debt.

Our latest crisis may seem to have started in 2007, with the collapse of the American housing market. But as Philip Coggan shows in this new book, Paper Promises: Money, Debt and the new World Order which he will talk about in this lecture, the crisis is part of an age-old battle between creditors and borrowers. And that battle has been fought over the nature of money. Creditors always want sound money to ensure that they are paid back in full; borrowers want easy money to reduce the burden of repaying their debts. Money was once linked to gold, a commodity in limited supply; now central banks can create it with the click of a computer mouse.

Time and again, this cycle has resulted in financial and economic crises. In the 1930s, countries abandoned the gold standard in the face of the Great Depression. In the 1970s, they abandoned the system of fixed exchange rates and ushered in a period of paper money. The results have been a long series of asset bubbles, from dotcom stocks to housing, and the elevation of the financial sector to economic dominance.

The current crisis not only pits creditors against debtors, but taxpayers against public sector workers, young against old and the western world against Asia. As in the 1930s and 1970s, a new monetary system will emerge; the rules for which will likely be set by the world's rising economic power, China.

Philip Coggan was a Financial Times journalist for over twenty years, including spells as a Lex columnist, personal finance editor and investment editor, and is now the Buttonwood columnist of The Economist. In 2009, he was awarded the title of Senior Financial Journalist in the Harold Wincott awards and was voted Best Communicator at the Business Journalist of the Year Awards. Philip Coggan is the author of the business classic, The Money Machine.

Video: Lawrence Lessig's Republic, Lost - How Money Corrupts Congress—and a Plan to Stop It

Note to video departments everywhere that the below video is a fantastic way to show a presenter and his/her slides.

h/t Barry