Google + Kurzweil: "What an amazing, slightly terrifying combination"

I disagree with Jon Mitchell's take on the fantastic news that Ray Kurzweil has joined Google in a full-time role in Mountain View as Director of Engineering.

Inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil joins Google

Pairing the iconoclastic futurist/inventor with arguably the most innovative technology company in the world is not scary but very exciting (although I catch Jon's drift).

Much as it did when it hired Vint Cerf, one of the internet's father figures, Google has once again boosted its nerd/geek street cred with the addition of Kurzweil to its roster of science and tech luminaries.

This is definitely a coup for Larry Page & Co. Not quite on the same level as when Princeton's fledgling Institute for Advanced Study landed Einstein. But after the Pope of Science made his way to New Jersey many of the leading physicists, mathematicians and scientists of the day followed. No doubt Kurzweil's arrival in Mountain View should have a similar effect in drawing today's pioneers in the areas where Ray has made significant contributions, such as speech recognition and artificial intelligence.

Ray begins his new gig on December 17. Congrats to Ray and Google, and we anxiously await the results of your collaboration!

Video: Nobel Prize Winner Al Roth On 'Repugnant' Transactions

Congratulations, Al and Lloyd Shapley!

The below presentation by Al Roth, whose work on kidney exchanges you might recognize from Freakonomics, was made at Google in 2007. The presentation introduces you to Roth's work on repugnant transactions and market design.

Be warned that parts of Roth's presentation are a bit wonkish, but you can skip ahead to 28:12 mark if you're interested in his kidney work.

Boomerang: Apple's "It Just Works" Promise to Customers

iPhone Maps app icon: what's wrong with this picture?

Mapplegate, the PR fiasco surrounding Apple's new iPhone mapping software, doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon. You can read all about the details elsewhere but I wanted to make a couple general observations.

First, flashback to 2008 and Apple's launch of their cloud email/calendar syncing product called MobileMe. From MacRumors and Fortune:

Mr. Jobs called the MobileMe team into a town hall meeting in one of Apple’s auditoriums after the service launched with problems and garnered unflattering reviews from noted tech commentators like Walt Mossberg of The Wall Street Journal. 

Mr. Jobs reportedly asked the assembled engineers and other MobileMe team members, “Can anyone tell me what MobileMe is supposed to do?” When one of those employees then volunteered a satisfactory answer, Mr. Jobs followed up with, “So why the fuck doesn’t it do that?”

He (Jobs) then spent some 30 minutes berating the team, telling them that they had “tarnished Apple’s reputation,” and that they, “should hate each other for having let each other down.” 

He added, “[Walt] Mossberg, our friend, is no longer writing good things about us.” 

Jobs appointed a new executive on the spot to run the MobileMe team. 

The MobileMe story may suggest that the iron fist with which Jobs ran Apple may now be missing, but it also helps explain why Apple's new map software problems are getting so much media attention.

Ever since Jobs returned to Apple the mantra he emphasized over and over again about new products was "It Just Works". What you're seeing here is what happens when, contrary to what you promise customers, something not only doesn't work but actually fails in very unpleasant ways. From NY Times tech guru David Pogue:

99 percent of it (iOS6 Maps), Apple says, is accurate. Unfortunately, when the overall data set is that huge, even half a percent of faulty data means a lot of flaws. And the trouble is, you never know when you’re going to encounter one. One wild goose chase, and you’ll find it hard to trust the software again. 

So Apple has written a beautiful, well-designed app — and fed it questionable data. It’s as though you just got a $1,500 professional coffee maker and then poured moldy beans into it.

The actual map with safe instructions

Whenever Apple stumbles, be it Maps, MobileMe, antenna-gate, Foxconn sweat shops, and my personal favorite (because I experienced it) - the irrecoverable Time Capsule hard drive failure - people pounce. People love to call out hypocrisy and shoot down 'hollier than though' types at the first sign of indiscretion. They did the same thing with Google and its 'Don't Be Evil' motto everytime Google engaged in an anywhere remotely questionable practice. It also doesn't help Apple right now that it's the world's largest company in terms of market capitalization and price to perfection, meaning it can't afford to execute sloppily.

The blow to Apple's promise to customers that everything just works certainly doesn't help the company. But whether or not Apple's maps fiasco figures prominently into this blog's prediction that Apple is nearing its high water mark remains to be seen. For more on the future of Apple, Holman Jenkins of the WSJ also has a good read.

Video: Lawrence Lessig's Republic, Lost - How Money Corrupts Congress—and a Plan to Stop It

Note to video departments everywhere that the below video is a fantastic way to show a presenter and his/her slides.

h/t Barry

Recapping The PolyCapitalist's 2011 Predictions

For those keeping score three topics I made 2011 forecasts on were:

1. Rise of Android
2. China's bubble
3. U.S. Housing

On Android, the verdict is in:

The U.S. housing market officially double dipped in May and then continued to fall, so that call looks correct as well.

The China prediction is a bit murkier, but here are some points worth noting:

• The Hang Seng and Shanghai stock markets are in a bear market and down roughly 20% for the year, or 30% since May. From its peak in 2008 Shanghai is off 60%.
• Housing prices are softening quickly; in Beijing new home prices dropped 35% in November alone.
• Coastal cities such as Wenzhou and Ordos appear to be experiencing a credit crisis with reports of businessmen leaping off rooftops.
• Hot money appears to be flowing out of the country: China's $3.2 trillion in foreign reserves have been falling for three months despite a trade surplus.

Things aren't shaping up too well for China or trade relations with the U.S. in 2012 either. For more on this see here, here, here and here.

Overall, does 2.5 out of 3 predictions sound about right?

Two more quick ones: bullishness on gold has been a steady theme since starting this blog in May 2010. And how did gold do in 2011? Despite the autumn selloff gold priced in U.S. dollars has returned around 10%. Not too shabby given that the S&P500 is flat YTD. I also managed a correct mid-year bearish call on the euro.

Check back later for The PolyCapitalist's 2012 predictions.

Video: Google's Zeitgeist - What the World Searched For in 2011

Recommended links

1. Is there a shadowy plot behind gold? (FT)

2. Ray Dalio video interview (Charlie Rose). Ray doesn't have the most compelling television presence, but as the world's largest hedge fund manager he's clearly doing something right. Here is an interesting earlier read from the New Yorker on him and his firm, Bridgewater.

3. Eurozone summit - despair and backbiting in the corridors of power (Telegraph)

4. Steve Jobs Was Willing To 'Rip Off' Everyone Else... But Was Pissed About Android Copying iPhone? (TechDirt)

5. Michael Pettis Talks China (Infectious Greed)

6. €1.5bn Dexia loans used to buy shares in...Dexia (FT)

7. Generation X Doesn’t Want to Hear It (Emptypage)

Steve Jobs RIP (1955-2011)

The King of the BHAG is dead.

Steve Jobs (1955-2011)

Official statement from the Apple Board:

We are deeply saddened to announce that Steve Jobs passed away today. 

Steve’s brilliance, passion and energy were the source of countless innovations that enrich and improve all of our lives. The world is immeasurably better because of Steve. 

His greatest love was for his wife, Laurene, and his family. Our hearts go out to them and to all who were touched by his extraordinary gifts.

For more reflections on Jobs recent resignation as CEO and some rare, early interview footage of the Apple co-founder see End of a Tech Era.

One Chart: Why Apple, Microsoft, Oracle, etc. are Teaming-Up Against Google

Here's last year's prediction, made back when Android had under 25% of the market and was smaller than the iPhone. Below are the latest comScore market share figures, which have Google's Android up 5.4% in three months and rapidly closing in on 50% of the U.S. smartphone market.

Top Smartphone Platforms 3 Month Avg. Ending Jul. 2011 vs. 3 Month Avg. Ending Apr. 2011 Total U.S. Smartphone Subscribers Ages 13+ Source: comScore MobiLens
	Share (%) of Smartphone Subscribers
	Apr-11	Jul-11	Point Change
Total Smartphone Subscribers	100.0%	100.0%	N/A
Google	36.4%	41.8%	5.4
Apple	26.0%	27.0%	1.0
RIM	25.7%	21.7%	-4.0
Microsoft	6.7%	5.7%	-1.0
Symbian	2.3%	1.9%	-0.4

Look no further than above for an explanation of the strange bedfellows which recently united against Google.

Software Is Eating The World

The tech world was roiled this week by Google's acquisition of Motorolla and HP's corporate makeover. Here's a good read from Marc Andressen (HP board member, VC and Netscape co-founder) on the current state of tech and where things are headed.

My Dream TV Setup and the Present Nightmare

I'm not a huge TV or movie watcher, but I would like to do the following:

1. hang a flat panel HD TV on my wall
2. connect it wirelessly to broadband internet so the only cable I need is the TV power cord
3. use my smartphone or laptop as my remote
4. and (here's the hard part) watch all the world's video content (in full HD resolution when available), whenever I want for a reasonable price.

That's my seemingly simple (in terms of the necessary technology) TV dream.

Now, let me introduce you to the present state, which amounts to a nightmare of massive fragmentation.

TV Hell

Not surprisingly given the money at stake, nearly every major tech firm, media conglomerate, TV manufacturer, along with a number of innovative startups, are angling for a piece (or more often control) of the connected TV market. The result is today's dizzying array of incompatibile and walled off offerings, such as:

• Content sources: iTunes,  Bravia Internet, Hulu, SeeSaw, Plex, Netflix, Freeview, LoveFilm, etc.
• Wireless technologies: WHDI, WiDI, WirelessHD, Wireless USB, WiGig (see Wired's article for more on this topic)
• Devices: separate boxes like Apple TV, Boxee, Revue, Roku, PS3, Xbox, and TVs like LG's Smart TV and Google TV which have features built into the TV itself

The net-net of this media-tech cacophony is consumer confusion and painfully slow progress on delivering a complete wireless HDTV solution.

The failure is not for lack of effort. Google TV tried to bring it all together and promptly had the door slammed in its face by the major U.S. television networks. Scrappy startups like Boxee and Plex have developed innovative offerings, but they lack the heft at present to deliver the goods. On the content side, Hulu is great, but it engages in an extensive game of cat and mouse to keep users from outside the U.S. and Canada from accessing the site. The same is true of the BBC's iPlayer for users outside the UK. Apple has a lot to offer, but Apple TV can't do full HD and the iTunes pricing model makes it significantly more expensive than Netflix. Lovefilm doesn't stream content in HD, only standard definition at present.

It is Netflix, with its large catalogue of streaming HD content, that is perhaps the best of the lot. But it is only available in North America at present and (worse) the company is still beholden to content owners which means it can't control prices (e.g., the recent unpopular price increase).

In short, many have tried but everyone including some of the most creative and powerful companies in the world have failed to deliver wireless, on-demand HD TV.

Keeping the Dream

For now the Big Boys have all decided that, rather than sharing with other kids in the sandbox they're going to try to keep their toys to themselves. But what they fail to realise is that on demand, HD, wireless, anywhere, any device TV is coming whether content owners (Hollywood) like it or not. Hollywood can either get out in front of this tsunami and try to ride the wave of the future, or it will get crushed by it.

The future of TV will look something like Spotify or Netflix, meaning it will be:

• On demand
• HD
• With a comprehensive library of content
• And reasonably priced for all you can watch

When? The wireless and smart device technology exists right now, so it's all about content licensing. It was hoped that 2011 would be the breakthrough year for connected TV, but it's July and I don't see it happening.

Hollywood and content owners are fighting tooth-and-nail to maintain the lucrative status quo for another season. Freeview, talk of Netflix international expansion, and perhaps other important steps are in store for 2012, so here's to hoping we'll see major advances in wireless HD TV next year.

'Adult Supervision' at Facebook?

But who is supervising Facebook's 'adults'?

Remarkable timing award of the week.

News of Facebook's secret smear campaign leaks the day after BusinessWeek publishes a rosy cover story on Sheryl Sandberg, which prominently quotes the Facebook COO as providing "adult supervision" at the social network.

However, Sandberg no doubt authorised and perhaps even concocted Facebook's idiotic PR caper.

In the competition over who people should trust with their very personal data, score a checkmark in Google's column and yet another minus against Zuckerberg and Co.

Updated: Confirmed Map, Satellite Imagery, and CIA Diagram of Bin Laden's Compound in Abbottabad (Bilal Town), Pakistan

(Note: in the hours following confirmation of bin Laden's death various maps purporting the location of the bin Laden compound were circulated by the mainstream media. In the interest of maintaining the chronology of these releases, and to highlight some of the astute comments made on this post, I've kept the two inaccurate map sets in the order they were circulated. The final, accurate satellite image from 2010, along with the CIA diagram of the compound, can be found at the bottom of this post.)

Osama bin Laden was killed today (unconfirmed death photo here, WARNING: graphic) about 100 kilometers outside Pakistan's capital of Islamabad. The op was carried out by the Special Forces 'legendary' (in both the literal and figurative sense) Seal Team Six.

The Location

Bin Laden was located in the relatively posh part of Abbottabad, Pakistan called Bilal Town. The compound itself was located a short distance from the Pakistani military academy (the "West Point or Sandhurst of Pakistan" as it's being characterized).

The Compound

His five-to-six year old property, believed to have been purpose built to hide the ultimate 'High Value Target' (HVT), was three stories tall and approximately eight times larger than any other nearby dwelling. Other key details:

• 12-to-18-foot walls, topped with barbed wire
• Internal walls sectioned off different areas of the compound
• Access was restricted by two security gates
• Closed-circuit cameras positioned around the property
  

Yet bin Laden's "mansion", as it has been characterized, did not have a phone line or internet. The couriers, Afghans brothers named Arshad and Tariq who were also gunned down by ST6, did not report any income and had no visible source of wealth. They also burned all their own trash. Neighbors also reported that the women who were living inside the house spoke in Arabic and not the local dialect.

Assessing Bin Laden's Hideout Strategy & What Did Pakistan Know?

Bin Laden's choice to hide near Pakistani military installations and in a residential community of retired Pakistani officers strikes me as both intriguing and suspicious. Less wise, perhaps, were some of the activities noted above, like burning the trash and not having a phone or internet line.

In short, Bin Laden stopped just short of hiding in veritable plain view. Did his failure to go all the way here do him in? One thing we do know is that the U.S. was only able to locate bin Laden by trailing his courier back to the compound in August 2010, and the whole reason bin Laden had to employ the services of a courier was due to his aversion to phones and the internet.

This location at least gave bin Laden some chance as the first assassination option considered by President Obama, employing B-2 Stealth Bombers, was abandoned due in part to the likelihood of collateral damage.

Bin Laden apparently lived in this compound for the last 5-6 years. This raises very important questions about how much Pakistan, or elements of Pakistan's military and intelligence service, knew about the whereabouts of bin Laden. The U.S. has sent billions of dollars to Pakistan over the past several years to help find and kill people like bin Laden.

Was bin Laden's thinking on where to locate influenced by his correct calculation that the U.S. was unlikely to drop a bomb or conduct a Predator drone strike on this particular location? In turn, was bin Laden expecting a tip from Pakistani intelligence should any planned U.S. Special Forces assault to be attempted?

The Map, Satellite Imagery, & Compound Diagram

From the below maps, sourced from The Atlantic, you can see that it was located very close to a police station.

(click to enlarge)

And below is the pinned version marking bin Laden's compound (B) and the nearby police station (A).

(click to enlarge)

Update 1: As a commenter pointed out the exact location of the compound appears to be unclear. Here are the satellite imagery of the compound's surrounding area and closeup from the above Google maps sourced from The Atlantic.

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

Update 2: Here's a second Google Map with corresponding satellite imagery of the compound, sourced from the Huffington Post. This location is in nearby Bilal Town, a newer development a couple miles from Abbottabad:

(click to enlarge)

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Update 3: As an astute commenter pointed out, based on an evaluation of these compound photos (which include a daylight image of the scuttled MH-60 Seahawk Helicopter; nighttime footage of the burning wreck here) these previously reported locations are not correct.

Below are the maps for the now CIA confirmed location of bin Laden's compound:

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

The following two satellite images appear to be circa 2004-2005.

(click to enlarge)

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This satellite shot is from 2010 and shows some of the other dwellings that sprouted up around bin Laden since 2004-2005 that are clearly visible in recent compound photos.

(click to enlarge)

And here is the diagram, complete with dimensions and other pertinent op information, that the CIA just released of the actual compound.

(click to enlarge)

Review: Unlocked/Off-Contract Smartphone + giffgaff = Mobile Heaven

Does your phone company advertise with a gimp?

I regularly travel back and forth between the U.S. and the U.K., with extended stays (approximately a month) during each trip. Every time I make the transatlantic jaunt I receive a stark reminder of how much better Brits have it when it comes to mobile providers. Before I explain, a little further background:

Last year after owning all of the first three iPhones, each locked and on multi-year contract to AT&T, I made the smartphone switcheroo. Crucially, I decided to purchase my new device outright to avoid any multi-year contracts or being locked to a single carrier. In exchange for paying a relatively hefty ($500+) up front for an unsubsidized smartphone, my total cost of ownership should come in around or under $1K, or 1/2 to 1/3 of the $2-$3K cost for something like the iPhone 4 on two-year contract.

How are the above savings possible? Part of the answer is the wonderful U.K. mobile provider with the quirky name called giffgaff.

Still think the name 'giffgaff' is weird? It gets weirder: my mobile plan name is called the Hokey Cokey. Funny name alright, but this plan is anything but hokey: for only £5 a month (about $8) I get 60 UK anytime minutes, 300 UK texts, 100MB/day data, a free extra minute for every minute I get called, plus free giffgaff to giffgaff calls and texts on top of that.

Another nice feature that giffgaff offers is that I don't have to pay when I'm not in the U.K., and when I don't pay I don't lose my phone number. I'd be more excited about this if I was getting charged the $80 or so I pay in the U.S. for a comparable plan, but it's nice all the same.

$8 for all that? Yep. There must be a catch? Yes, but it's pretty minor.

First, the Hokey Cokey is a giffgaff 'labs' plan, meaning it's experimental and may not be around after June. Also, the 100MB/day data* (see comments for further discussion) portion of the plan is not normally a part of the Hokey Cokey, but is being offered to all giffgaff customers through at least the end of May June.

Bottom line: there is no guarantee that I'll have the same, exact plan come June. What then? If the Hokey Cokey goes bye-bye for jusst £10 a month (about $17) I can sign up to to next plan, which has 250 UK anytime minutes, unlimited UK texts, and unlimited mobile Internet (plus the same free giffgaff to giffgaff calls and texts as the Hokey plan).

So the plans and pricing sound incredible, but what about the network coverage? Giffgaff runs on O2's network, which is the second largest in the U.K. So far as I can tell I receive the same service quality and coverage as a regular O2 customer. In London, for example, call quality is excellent and I have no problems streaming music while on the move at the highest bitrate (320 kbps) offered by Spotify (which is another great thing the U.K. has going over the U.S., and perhaps the subject of a future review).

Review: TripIt, My New Favorite Time Saving Smartphone App (Video)

The key value add: being able to simply forward emails I receive from the airlines containing my flight details/confirmations to TripIt, and then TripIt does two things:

1. automatically and instantaneously syncs all that info to my Google calendar
2. stores it on my Nexus S TripIt app 

No more manually typing flight information into my calendar, and no more searching for emails to dig up a confirmation number.

And it does a couple other nifty things mentioned in the video below. Marvelous.

Adios iPhone: On Making the Smartphone Switcheroo

The iPhone is unquestionably one of the biggest game changing consumer goods in recent memory. Netscape founder Marc Andreessen has characterized it as a "wormhole product", seemingly delivered unexpectedly to Earth straight from the heavens.

Just how revolutionary was the iPhone? At the time of its dramatic January 2007 introduction in San Francisco by Apple CEO Steve Jobs, Canada-based Research in Motion -- then the world's leading mobile device maker -- dismissed it, believing the iPhone as described by Jobs to be an "impossible" engineering feat.

I've been a very happy iPhone user ever since the original went on sale 3.5 years ago. Each successive iPhone iteration has delivered significant enhancements. And I've even stood in a relatively short iPhone purchase wait line (but a line nevertheless), anxious to upgrade as soon as the latest version became available. That was until the announcement of the underwhelming iPhone 4.

iPhone Alternatives

The failure of the iPhone 4 to impress, combined with the changing smartphone competitive landscape, led me to take a hard look at two emerging iPhone alternatives: Google's Android and Microsoft's Windows Phone.

Microsoft's smartphone efforts the past few years have been nothing short of a complete failure. But Redmond's new Windows Phone software shows real promise. I was particularly impressed with the creativity that went into the elegant and innovative new Windows Phone user interface, called Metro. It's intuitive and refreshing, and the whole scheme is particularly pleasing to the eye on one of Samsung's Super AMOLED screens.

With the new user interface and other encouraging signs across various Microsoft product lines (i.e.,  ZunePass, SkyDrive, Xbox Kinect), I have growing confidence that the Washington-based software behemoth is recovering its form. In short, Microsoft has a potential winner on its hands. However, at this point in time there are just too few apps available for Windows Phone. Further, many features widely available on the iPhone are missing (e.g., copy/paste, multitasking, etc.).

What about Android?

Smartphone Wars: Android vs. iPhone

Google and its hardware partners, such as Motorola, Samsung, and HTC, have made big strides in 2010.  The iPhone/Android app gap has largely closed, and Android's market share is about to (or already has) overtaken the iPhone.

In contrast with the two versions of the iPhone currently available for sale (iPhone 4 and 3GS), there are some 80+ different Android devices. This greater selection -- and the increased freedom of choice Android offers over the iPhone in general -- is considered to be both Android's greatest strength and biggest weakness.

Many find the array of Android choices somewhat dizzying, while others want features like a Blackberry style keyboard, or a removable battery, or a larger 4" screen for browsing the internet -- all things you can find on an Android device, but not on an iPhone.

Ladies and Gentlemen, We Have a Race!

Let's be clear up front: the idea that there is an "iPhone killer" lurking out there somewhere over a not so distant hill is a myth. The iPhone has established critical market share mass, and it will likely remain a solid smartphone for the foreseeable future. Barring a major snafu millions of iPhones will continue to ship.

While 'power' smartphone users have had some great Android options to choose from for awhile now, the more typical smartphone owner basically just wants their technology to be simple and work. I suspect many of these folks who are familiar with Android have probably heard that Google's software is simply not as polished (in terms of ease of use) as Apple's.

However, Google just came out with a new smartphone, the Nexus S; it has been thoroughly reviewed and the verdict is in: it's a winner.

The Nexus S is the "official Google smartphone". It is manufactured by the same South Korean tech powerhouse which provides many of the iPhone's core components (Samsung). In my opinion, it is perhaps the first true mainstream alternative to the iPhone. 

Not only does the Nexus S possess hardware which can compete head-to-head with Apple's flagship iPhone 4, but the latest Android software (called 'Gingerbread') is intuitive and easy enough for the average iPhone user to switch to without having to spend much time getting up to speed on a new system.

Google's Nexus S

Long story made short -- the Nexus S not only delivers, but it also delights. The total experience is not just comparable to the iPhone, but in many ways superior. This is particularly true if you use Google services such as Search, Maps, Gmail, and especially Google Voice (which I reviewed here).

The Myth of the One Size Fits All Smartphone

The Nexus S, like all smartphones, has shortcomings because, like the iPhone, it simply can't be all things to all people.

For example, the Nexus S is perhaps the ideal international smartphone for a bevy of reasons; however, if you're based in the U.S. and you need a 3G carrier other than T-Mobile (the Nexus S can't utilize AT&T's 3G network, just AT&T's 2G service) then this iteration of the Nexus S (new versions of the Nexus S may be launched on the other carriers) may not be right for you.

The Nexus S also can't take advantage of the even higher speed 3.5G / 4G data networks which are starting to roll out in the U.S. Last, some Android apps are not as fully fleshed out as they are on the iPhone. For example, the Android Bloomberg app doesn't allow you to reorder your news preferences like you can on the iPhone.

Change is Hard

Ignoring network considerations, my best guess is that the majority of users would find the Nexus S comparable to the iPhone 4 in terms of overall pluses and minuses, and superior to the 3GS. Equal, however, is hardly a good enough reason to switch, so I don't expect the Nexus S to generate blockbuster iPhone-like sales.

Many users are understandably reluctant to switch to a different smartphone platform, particularly those who have made a significant investment in iPhone apps and accessories. If you are in this camp then you may be better off sticking with your iPhone.

But if you're new to smartphones, or ready to make a switch, then you should definitely give Android phones like the Nexus S a serious look. And for those worried about having to learn a whole new smartphone I think you'll be pleasantly surprised with how familiar Android seems compared to the iPhone.

And for those making the switch to Android, here are some things you can look forward to: I believe 2011 could very well be shaping up to be the Year of Android. What do I mean by that? We already discussed Android's rapid market share growth. With that growth we should see what remains of the the app gap disappear in 2011. And Android's next operating system, called Honeycomb, is generating significant positive buzz and is set for a Q2 2011 launch -- just before Apple typically launches its latest iPhone. Other hardware advances, such as battery sipping dual-core processors, are slated for Q1 release in Android devices. Overall, it's clear that Google and its partners are innovating at a faster clip than Apple.

In the battle of the smartphones, it certainly feels like Google has captured the momentum. For a variety of reasons, Google may also have the medium-term upper hand over Apple.

How Much Does Your Phone Say About You?

There has been a lot made of what your phone, like your car, says about you.

One emerging area where your choice of smartphone may be saying something important about you is the price you are charged when shopping online.

Recently the growing use by online retailers of 'dynamic pricing' has come to light. Reports have emerged that Google Chrome users are offered lower prices than Firefox users (apparently Chrome users are considered to be more savvy online shoppers). It's somewhat unclear how widespread the practice of dynamic pricing has become.

Perhaps the takeaway here should be that regardless of whether you feel your phone choice reflects the deeper you, our minds are naturally drawn to outward symbols such as cars, clothes and now smartphones. Like it or not, your consumer choices do say something about you, and perhaps there's a good reason why.

The Politics of Technology

While the Nexus S is the smartphone that led me to abandon the iPhone, the question of "which smartphone?" actually carries larger implications for even non-geeks.

Google and Apple take markedly different approaches to technology. Whether one approach is "better" depends on your perspective, which end product or service we're talking about, and above all else generates heated debate. What is not up for debate, however, is which platform is more open to individual expression and choice -- values which the western democratic world has generally held in high regard.

Why the difference? Whether or not Google fully walks the "don't be evil" talk is open to question, in my opinion. However, when it comes to Apple's approach to technology I think Rich Karlgaard's assessment of Steve Jobs psyche pretty much nailed it.

Closing Thoughts

As discussed previously, the Nexus S and Gingerbread now offer a near iPhone like experience in terms of intuitiveness, simplicity and ease of use. I concur with those who claim the iPhone still has the overall edge in these categories. For now. The gap has closed (and in my opinion will continue to do so) to such a degree that it is no longer credible to claim that if you want a simple, trouble free, and premium smarthphone experience then your only choice is the iPhone.

The bottom line: while it's certainly not black and white, if you prefer Google's approach to technology over Apple's then it's now safe to make the switch away from the iPhone without much risk of regret.

Note: for more Nexus S reviews see also CNET's video review, or from the slightly-to-more progressively geeky writeups respectively by Wired, Engadget, and AnandTech.

Further note: if you read the often entertaining comments sections of the above reviews you'll find remarks from a number of existing Android smartphone owners stating how "disappointed" they are in the Nexus S, often because it's too 'evolutionary' rather than 'revolutionary'. As someone who is brand new to Android, I understand but don't share this point of view. The Nexus S has some bleeding edge tech (i.e., NFC chip, integrated SIP calling). However, the Nexus S is not solely targeted at early adopters. Rather Google has focussed on small details to refine the Android experience for broad consumer adoption.

Auf Wiedersehen iPhone

At the time of the iPhone 4 launch I wrote an unexpectedly controversial article about my reasons for holding off on upgrading my 3GS. Well, my 3GS just went kaput (right outside the 12 month warranty, naturally) so it's time for a new phone.

In my June iPhone 4 launch writeup I only mentioned Android as a possible alternative. However, I've also been quietly keeping an eye on the new Microsoft mobile phone OS, blandly named Windows Phone 7.

I say 'quietly' because until recently anyone caught considering a Microsoft phone product would have received a heap of public (and deserved) ridicule. Microsoft's mobile phone effort is perhaps one of the more well publicized tech disasters. CEO Balmer's bonus was slashed by 50% due to the Kin debacle.

In my case, there were further reasons not to consider Microsoft. Chiefly, I have a Mac computer and don't plan on switching from Mac OS X anytime soon. Windows Phones at present won't sync with Macs. However, amid reports of the temperature cooling in Hell that's apparently about to change.

Still, with the iPhone generally considered the class-leading platform why would I consider switching to something else?

Apple's Innovation Slowdown

As noted in my June article, iPhone 4 failed to generate the same level of excitement as previous iPhones. I believe the main driver of this disappointment is that Apple is innovating at a slower clip than in years past. One of iPhone 4's big selling points was multitasking, which has been available on Android and Palm devices for quite awhile. And Steve Jobs' "one more thing" was video conferencing, a technology which has been around forever (by tech standards) and currently only works over WiFi.

The slowdown in innovation can be observed in other Apple products. Take the recent 13" MacBook Air refresh. Its uses the same Core2Duo chipset as the MacBook Air I purchased two years ago. The Air is billed as an "ultraportable" but there has been no material reduction in its 3 lbs. weight since it was first launched nearly three years ago. And it is still useless as a "laptop" as it continues to get too hot for comfortable use in your lap.

Overall, the pace of innovation appears to be slowing in Cupertino.

While the iPhone Has Lost its Hardware Edge...

The iPhone no longer possess the top-of-the line hardware kit.

Don't believe me? I encourage anyone to put an iPhone 4 with its highly touted "retina display" next to one of Samsung's Super AMOLED screens (e.g., Samsung Omnia 7). To use Steve Jobs' favorite term when describing displays, compared to the iPhone's the Super AMOLED screen is "gorgeous". Further, Super AMOLED crushes the iPhone's IPS tech in power consumption (30%), viewing angles and contrast.

We're also starting to see other hardware innovations leapfrog the iPhone 4's specs, such as faster processors, better WiFi, and other features which are already making the only four month old iPhone 4 look dated.

If hardware inferiority weren't a big enough challenge for Apple, the iPhone is also wrestling with poor design. The much ballyhooed death grip problem has been followed up with reports of increased glass screen damage. In all, it appears that the chorus of iPhone gripes is growing, not shrinking.

What makes these hardware and design shortcomings particularly problematic is Apple's product refresh cycle. Apple's pattern has been to release three versions under the same basic design, which means iPhone users are likely to be stuck with the same design until iPhone 7 (summer 2013).

...Apple's Software Advantage is Rapidly Eroding

Nokia mobile boss's characterization of using Android as being like “peeing in your pants for warmth” in winter is a bit much. However, the iPhone's strongest selling point over Android has been its software. Three strengths commonly highlighted are:

• User Interface
• Multi-touch (e.g., accuracy)
• App store

While Android has made big strides in catching up to Apple's App Store, the overall user experience is still inferior to the iPhone. The opposite is the case with Windows Phone 7.

I had a chance for the first time yesterday to test drive the Windows Phone 7 (on a Samsung Omnia 7). I have to say that the Windows Phone 7 UI rocks! And don't just take my word for it: influential Apple fanatic John Gruber of Daring Fireball agrees.

While Windows Phone marketplace lacks the sheer number of iPhone apps, this statistic is misleading. Microsoft's Phone already has many of the most popular apps (i.e., Twitter, Facebook, Netflix). Given Microsoft's resources I expect that, like Android, it will quickly close the app gap.

Last, has anyone else out there grown tired of the iPhone's cutesy candy icons, which have been copied ad nauseam? If so you'll find Microsoft's Phone UI, called Metro, a breath of fresh air. I'll be the first to confess that this an altogether superficial factor, but it's a factor.

Apple's Stock Price: Where to From Here?

Apple's stock price is bubblicious. The company has been on a tear for years now and the stock price has responded accordingly.

However, as evidenced by Samsung and Motorolla on the hardware side, and now Google and Microsoft on the software side, the competition has not only caught up but is leapfrogging a slowing Apple.

Further evidence on how times have changed: recent discussion of the upcoming 2011 launch of the first CDMA iPhone centered on how Apple needs Verizon a lot more than Verizon needs Apple. Prior to the original iPhone when Apple was seeking wireless carrier partners, Apple spurned Verizon. Apparently Verizon hesitated on Steve Jobs' request for carte blanche control over the iPhone's design and features, leading Apple to partner with AT&T (its second choice). With the iPhone's early blockbuster success Verizon was roundly criticized for its obstinance. But the proverbial Mountain would not to come to Mohammed, and now Steve Jobs and the iPhone need Verizon.

Apple investors may possibly see some modest stock price appreciation from here, but we're definitely in the late innings of the extraordinary run in AAPL.

Thoughts on iPhone 4 and Android

To be sure, we pretty much expected this year's iPhone announcement to be a yawner compared to prior years.

Much of the yawn is of course attributable to the highly publicized Apple employee party foul leak of an actual iPhone 4 prototype. That, combined with Apple's pre-announcement of some of the new OS features like multitasking, was always going to make it difficult for Jobs to deliver the same "wow!" factor as he has in the past. But to boot Steve's normally flawless presentation suffered from WiFi trouble. Liz Gannes of GigaOm, speaking on behalf of the many iPhone owners frustrated by AT&T's network issues called Job's WiFi trouble "poetic justice".

Yet iPhone 4 managed to make a splash with its appealing features. The new hardware (screen resolution, build quality) sounds rock solid. And I personally really like the emphasis on making the iPhone a better portable camera/video recorder. Extra battery life is always nice. The iPhone and Apple have a lot of momentum, and I expect iPhone 4 to sell well. And it will sell even better if it finally becomes available on Verizon.

But like other reviewers I was expecting at least a few more positive surprises from Apple with iOS than what we heard yesterday. Much of what Apple has done with the new OS is Android catchup (e.g., multitasking). And this might be the least exciting "one more thing" in Jobs keynote history: Face Time, the video calling feature. While video conferencing is new to the iPhone, it's a relatively old and familiar technology. And for now FaceTime only works on WiFi. Many times when I'm around WiFi I have my laptop and would prefer to use that for video conferencing because of the larger screen size.

One of the takeaways from iPhone 4 is that Apple may be struggling to make the same "insanely great" attention grabbing iPhone technological leaps as it has in the past. This doesn't bode well for Apple's product or stock price momentum, which is already in heady territory.

I would also add that some part of the iPhone's appeal as a status symbol has definitely been lost. This is in part due to the ubiquity of the iPhone, but also due to Apple's own iPad becoming the new must have gadget to show off.

Overall, iPhone 4 is a nice evolutionary update. But I don't plan on upgrading anytime soon from my iPhone 3GS. A big reason is I'd like to wait a little while to see what Android has in the pipeline. Android has rapidly closed the gap with Apple to the point where their respective OSs and hardware are close to parity, in my opinion. And the speed at which Android's software and hardware is advancing is impressive compared to Apple.

Review: Google Voice and the iPhone

Google Voice (formerly called GrandCentral, purchased by Google in 2007) was release a little over a year ago. CNET and TechCrunch, among others, already did a nice job covering the relaunch of this service. The focus of this review is provide an updated overview of Google Voice 1+ year on and a personal account of how the service works with an iPhone.

What is Google Voice? 

The free service has a number of useful phone features. Perhaps the headliner is the ability to pick a new phone number (in whichever area code you prefer) that when called will simultaneously ring your other phone numbers (i.e., home, work, cell, etc.). People trying to reach you don't have to guess whether you're at work or on your cell and dial you multiple times.

(Now right away you might be saying that the switching cost of a new phone number makes Google Voice a non-starter. TechCrunch previously reported that number portability was coming to Google Voice by the end of 2009. And Mike Arrington somehow got his number ported to Google Voice. However, as of this writing porting is officially unavailable.)

To illustrate how Google Voice's main feature works here's how I currently use the service:

When someone calls my Google Voice number both my cell and home phone ring. This gives me the option to take a call on my home phone line when I'm home, thereby ensuring better call quality and reducing my cell phone minute useage. Or if I'm not at home my cell phone will ring allowing me to still take the call. It's that simple, and in my experience this feature works really well.

For the growing ranks who only have one phone number (their cell) Google Voice still has a couple other features that make it worth a look.

Google Voice and Chrome

I spend quite a bit of time on a computer, and Google Voice's fantastic integration with Google's Chrome browser has led me to make Chrome my default browser. Chrome allows click-to-call dialing for most (but not all) phone numbers on the web. Here's an example:

Say you're using Yelp to determine where you want to order takeout dinner. You're in the mood for a cheeseburger and fries, so you click on the phone number of Barney's Hamburgers. Google Voice goes about connecting you to Barney's without your ever having to dial the number. After clicking on Barney's number you're presented with a popup window asking which phone you'd like to use (i.e., home, cell, etc.). When you select which phone, Google Voice rings you at that phone. After you pick up Google Voice next connects you to Barney's. Presto. You're fingers never had to touch a dial pad. 

There are a couple small issues. One minor change I would like to see Google make here is to allow users to set a Chrome phone preference so you can skip the extra click step of selecting which phone Google Voice dials you at. I've also noticed a consistent delay between how quickly I can make consecutive Google Voice calls. If after making a Google Voice call from Chrome I immediately click to dial another number, the call won't connect. I need to allow usually about 1-2 full seconds before placing the second call. This is a minor annoyance and may be an issue specific to my phone service provider (Comcast) or my landline phone model (Panasonic KX-TG7431). And as noted earlier, occasionally I encounter a phone numbers on the web that I cannot click-to-dial, probably due to how the phone number is formatted. In that case I either copy and paste, or type the number into Google Voice web page to initiate the call.

Other Features

You can also use Google Voice to send free text messages, which I can also write more quickly and accurately from my computer keyboard. Unfortunately, incoming text messages to your Google Voice number are forwarded to your cell phone, which eats into your monthly text message allotment. So another change I'd like to see made is to allow you to have text messages sent to your email or Google Voice inbox instead.

Google Voice also transcribes your voicemails so that, in theory, you can read them as emails or text messages instead of listening to them. In theory because the accuracy of the transcription service leaves a lot to be desired. I've found this feature to be most useful for visually scanning to determine whether the vmail is a quick "Hi, call me back" type message, or a lengthier vmail that requires careful listening.

A few more of Google Voice's many other features include:

• Google Voice also allows you to keep a record of your vmails, like you would saved emails
• Call screening
• Do-not-disturb - one click to turn off the ringer for all your phones
• Switch phones mid-call (for times when you need to head out the door and transfer the call to your cell)
• Recording calls (useful for journalists)
• Listening in on vmails as they are being recorded
• Share voicemails (forward them like email)

Google Voice on the iPhone

On the whole, Google Voice offers some impressive phone features for no cost. But how does Google Voice work with the iPhone? First, some history.

Last July there was considerable controversy when Apple rejected the Google Voice app for the iPhone. As John Gruber pointed out at the time it was not entirely clear whether this was simply Apple doing AT&T's bidding, as both companies stood to benefit by blocking Google Voice from the iPhone. The FCC launched an inquiry into the matter, which remains ongoing. Later Apple and AT&T issued a joint statement that the decision to not approve Google Voice for the iPhone was 100% Apple's. To this day, however, the Google Voice app is still not available in the App Store.

After declaring that Google Voice was coming to the iPhone "one way or another", in January of this year Google released an HTML5 'web app' version of the service. Because it is accessible from the iPhone's web browser it cannot be blocked by the nebulous App Store vetting process.

Overall the web app version of Google Voice is useful, but has some significant drawbacks. You can place the Google Voice icon on your iPhone home screen so that it can be conveniently accessed just like any other iPhone app. It has a dial pad similar to the iPhone's built-in dial pad (Google Voice has an extra prompt to initiate the phone call). You can also play your voicemails, which uses your unlimited data plan instead of your anytime phone minutes.

However, I don't always use the Google Voice web app to make outbound calls or send texts. The reason is because it is a bit more cumbersome -- and definitely slower -- than using the iPhone's built-in address book and texting. This is because web apps by their very nature can be a little to A LOT slower than the iPhone's in house apps. The delay on WiFi is a minor nuisance, but when I'm on 3G or in particularly EDGE the wait is unbearable. With the iPhone, I'm more often than not calling someone from my Favorites list. To get to that list all I need to do is double click the iPhone's button and I'm there instantaneously. With Google Voice I first have to wait for the dial pad to refresh as there is no way to set the default home screen to be my address book or inbox. Next I need click on Contacts and wait for that page to refresh.

What is result of using both my cell and Google Voice numbers to communicate? In a word, confusion. After getting a Google Voice number I asked people to delete my cell number and only call or text my Google Voice number. But people are still using my cell number because they know I'm still reachable on it. And how do they know that? Because they periodically receive a call or text from my cell number because I can't stand waiting for the Google Voice web app to refresh.

I've heard that Android's integration of Google Voice is "seamless", and I'd like to give it a try. Does seamless Google Voice integration be reason enough to make the switch from an iPhone to an Android phone? That I'm not so sure about. A number of Android phones are getting great reviews, and it will be interesting to see how Apple's 4th generation iPhone compares to them.

In terms of the market opportunity, only 1.4 million people have a Google Voice account (of which 570,000 use it every day) according to an FCC filing from November 2009. Even with better iPhone integration I wouldn't expect dramatic Google Voice growth. Enabling porting numbers could help but until then the switching costs of a new phone number too high for many people. In addition, many of Google Voice's features are probably overkill, if not overwhelming, for many users.