Why Italy Isn't In Such Bad Shape, But the U.S. and UK Are

Bill Gross runs PIMCO's huge flagship bond fund which, having engaged in an untimely shorting of U.S. Treasuries, has hit a bit of a rough patch in recent times. Some have suggested that the 69-year old might be a few years past the recommended portfolio manager retirement age and that it's no longer as useful as it once was to read his monthly investment newsletters.

Think again.

While Gross's timing on shorting U.S. treasuries has been poor, and his revealing in this month's column of memory issues is a little unnerving, his analysis of the fundamentals and medium to long-term sovereign fiscal picture remains sound.

Take his updated 'Ring of Fire II' chart, the first version of which he first published a few years back. The chart (below) plots countries by both their annual public sector deficit (y-axis), which is the difference between government spending and taxes, and what is termed a 'fiscal gap' (x-axis). The fiscal gap takes into account future expenditures, which in the U.S.'s case include entitlements such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

As you can see from the chart Italy appears to be in better fiscal shape than several 'Ring of Fire' members like the U.S., Japan and the UK.  How is this possible? Italy has been experiencing what economists refer to as a 'speculative attack' from the sovereign bond market, while the three Ring of Fire countries are currently enjoying record low yields on their government debt. 

Continue reading the full article here.

Ben Bernanke Cannot Print a New Steve Jobs

Gold bulls rejoice, for open-ended QE is here!

Yesterday's Fed announcement wasn't the long rumored 'QE3', as a '3' implies a beginning and an end like the two prior rounds of quantitative easing.

The Fed has instead committed to not stop printing new money until the economy improves.

What then will the Fed do if the economy never improves, meaning unemployment never gets back below 5%? Will the Fed go on printing forever? We shall have to wait and see.

In the meantime anyone who believes that printing money ad infinitum will fix what ails the U.S. economy, or the global economy for that matter, is living in macroeconomic Willy Wonkaland.

Monetary policy in the form of printing new money and changing interest rates does very little if anything to improve the foundational competitiveness of an economy. The most dynamic economies are the ones which are the most productive and most innovative, and monetary policy has very little if any impact on these two areas.

The kind of GDP growth driven by purchases of products like Apple's iPhone reflects real economic growth. The kind of GDP growth derived from nominal GDP targeting (aka inflation) is fake.

In short, Ben Bernanke cannot create new real jobs. Real jobs are created by the Steve Jobs of the world.

However, it's much easier for central planners to punch a few buttons on a keyboard and print more money than to make the long-term adjustments necessary for fundamental economic improvement.

On the Topic of Financial Collapse Fear Mongering

"Ireland is in a death spiral" -FT

"After the November President election the U.S. is facing a fiscal cliff" -Federal Reserve staff

"Eurogeddon!" -The PolyCapitalist

On and on go the warnings of cataclysm and pending financial doom. Technical jargon and existential risks are bandied about in frightening fashion, leaving the general, less-economically literate with very little ability to understand what's actually happening or just how bad things could really get if say Greece leaves the Eurozone, or another country defaults, or something like this occurs.

This blog is not entirely innocent of this criticism, and this post is a brief attempt to quickly address the question of whether our global financial system is on the precipice of a financial collapse if say something 'really bad' happens in Europe?

The short answer is no.

Now before I expand on that answer I would like to clarify something very important: this post is about financial collapse and not about the extremely high levels of unemployment, which have reached approximately 50% for young people in countries such as Greece and Spain. The youth and general unemployment problems today are serious and something to be very concerned about. But this post is not about that but instead about whether another Lehman-style event could occur where the world's financial system risks implosion if say a country like Greece pulls out of the euro, the current 'bank jog' in Spain accelerates, etc.

So why isn't the risk of financial collapse as bad as some would have use believe?

For starters, we have to keep in mind that our financial world is a virtual world. Today, money is largely a set of numbers on a computer. This means that even in the most extreme scenario of financial disorder, where policymakers completely blow it and the ATMs stopped working and the stock market tanked, that everything that is real and tangible - the houses, the food that is farmed, the physical assets - none of this goes away and will all be here the next day when you wake up in the morning.

Now having said that, a financial implosion would definitely have a major impact on our lives, particularly for those with fewer resources or who are unprepared. But life will go on for nearly everyone and could actually rebound quite quickly given other historical cases. For example, Argentina began recovering within months following its utterly complete financial meltdown in 2001 even though the country achieved the relatively rare trifecta of a currency collapse, a banking crisis, and a sovereign default all at once. Iceland has had a relatively quick turnaround following its 2008 financial implosion. And other Asian countries in the late-90s also turned the corner pretty quickly following major financial crises.

In the case of Argentina, dozens of people died in Dec. 2001 riots, so I don't want to minimize the very real suffering and dislocation which comes with a financial collapse. But Argentina's experience is a far cry from the level of suffering of say a war or severe natural disaster. In short, a 'cataclysm', it was not.

A further point needs to be made about the above examples, which is that they were all relatively isolated, contained crises that did not threaten a systemic collapse in arguably the same way as the current crisis. But this leads me to point number two, which is that a systemic collapse is extremely unlikely, particularly given two facts:

1. what was learned from the recent Lehman-experience in 2008 by the current crop of policymakers.
2. the world's central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, still have loads of financial ammunition.

Regarding the first point, current policymakers got a first-hand glimpse of just how interconnected the world's financial system is and how the failure of a seemingly small cog in the wheel could threaten to topple the whole system. So while yes, Greece's financial implosion could lead to a chain reaction that threatens the entire global financial system, it is utterly inconceivable in the wake of the Lehman crisis that policymakers would sit back and let that happen given what they learned and how they responded in 2008-2009.

So I hear you asking whether all our problems are solved then because central banks like the Federal Reserve are all powerful, financially speaking, and able to contain any crisis which comes its way? Over the long-term, I would say no, they are not all powerful financially. But in the short-term, meaning right now and over the next few months at least, they are all powerful financially, and here's why.

Central banks like the Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England which operate fiat currencies have an extraordinary power, which is that they can create an unlimited amount of money.

'Unlimited', meaning a truly infinite amount of money? Yes

What this means is that even if, for example, all the depositors in Spain and Greece withdrew every last euro from their local banks the ECB can supply all the notes that citizens want to hide under their bed mattresses. In short, the ATMs should never, ever run out of money in a fiat money system which is being managed by competent professionals.

But earlier I alluded to the fact that even though central banks can print an unlimited amount of money that they were not in fact financially omnipotent over the long-term, so what did I mean by that?

With the magic that is the computer a central bank could literally go and create and infinite amount of money. But there are side effects with central banks creating a lot of money, namely inflation. Without getting technical, simply put inflation is a rise in prices. Hyperinflation is a very large, sudden rise in prices.

But here is the crucial point to remember: rising inflation acts as a brake on a central bank's ability to create money. In other words, a rise in inflation is perhaps the key to understanding when central banks would be constrained in any effort to bail out the financial system.

Today, most of the world's advanced economies (North America, Europe) have relatively modest inflation, meaning low single digit annual percentage increases in official measures of core inflation. And even though they would say otherwise, the central banks in these advanced countries would be more than willing to trade an increase in inflation to stem the risk of a systemic financial collapse.

So how much more inflation would central banks be willing to tolerate as a tradeoff for not risking financial collapse? As the Bank of England has demonstrated in the past couple years, inflation creeping up towards 5% is not enough of a concern to prompt a significant deviation in policy. So my guess (it is a guess) is that at the extreme central banks like the Fed could tolerate up to 10% if they perceived the risks of collapse to be great enough before they would think twice about pulling another post-Lehman style bailout of the world's financial system. And since we're still in low single digit inflation this gives the Fed a decent amount of runway to maneuver.

This room to maneuver is what is meant when it is said that the Fed, which controls the world's most important reserve currency, and other central banks still have lots of ammunition.

The existence of this ammunition is likely a factor behind why given all the current distress in Europe that the stock markets haven't fallen further. In other words, the markets expect central banks to step in and flood the financial system with money if Greece leaves the euro or a banking run accelerates. Even the supposedly hemmed in by the Germans/hard-money crowd ECB. After LTRO and all the sovereign bond debt purchases, anyone who still thinks the ECB won't step in to save the system if things go completely pear shaped by creating a lot money is living in a fantasy. And this flood of central bank money would likely be very bullish for stocks in the short-term.

Should inflation increase significantly, then the ability of central banks to rush in and save the day could be diminished. But for now, they have the power to act, and that's why (for now) a general financial collapse is not on the immediate horizon.

So in sum, if you want to understand when it might be time to get worried, keep an eye on official measures of core inflation, particularly if it starts creeping up near the 5% level as that is about the time a proper central banker will begin to twitch over fears of runaway inflation.

Now, in terms of how you want to position your investment portfolio given the above, the very first post on this blog just over two years ago argued for allocating some of your portfolio into gold, which is arguably the best hedge against excessive central bank money printing. Even though the price of gold has gone up significantly in the last two years this blog still stands by that recommendation for long-term investors.

Buffet Badmouthing Gold is Like Geithner Talking Up U.S. Dollar

Lebron hasn't been taking financial advice from this guy, I hope? 

The fact that Warren Buffet is not a gold fan is old news.

I can't help but think about how, similar to the notion that it's never a positive sign for the currency when a finance minister feels compelled to publicly defend it, that perhaps it's a bullish signal for gold whenever Buffet feels the need to diss the yellow metal.

If you've studied Buffet you know that he chooses his words with extreme care. His financial empire is also so entrenched in the global economy that the only real risks he faces are existential ones. Such as the semi-quiet, steady run which has been taking place on the U.S. dollar since the turn of the century, when gold began its secular move upward.

Oh how it must just eat at the Oracle to know that a rock has been outperforming his precious equities for well over a decade!

Buffet was arguably the biggest single beneficiary from the 2008 government bailouts, a fact which hasn't received much airtime from Buffet-friendly business journalists (I'm talking about you, Becky). The steady devaluation of fiat currencies, like the U.S. dollar, against gold is something that this blog projects will continue. It is also something which clearly Warren would like to see slow down by badmouthing gold.

2012 Prediction #3: The Gold 'Bubble' Will Not Burst This Year

George Soros has called gold the "ultimate bubble".

It's getting more than a little far along into 2012 to still be making predictions, but let me just state clearly that 2012 will not witness a collapse in the price of gold.

Why not? I've written about this at length previously, most recently here.

Gold is already off to a decent start in 2012, up $150/oz YTD, so it's perhaps a little unfair for me to be making this call in February. I'm also not making a call on whether gold will finish the year higher or lower, although I suspect higher. However, I am confident that we won't see the bottom fall out of the price of gold this year, or next for that matter.

Overall, we're somewhere in the middle innings of the fallout from the 2008 financial crisis and there is still way too much debt in the global financial system for the flight to gold to reverse.

Podcast: Philip Coggan's Paper Promises - Money, Debt and the New World Order

Below is the podcast of Coggan's book talk, and here is a good review of Paper Promises.

Speaker(s): Philip Coggan

Chair: Professor Christopher Polk

Recorded on 19 January 2012 in Sheikh Zayed Theatre, New Academic Building.

The world is drowning in debt. Greece is on the verge of default. In Britain, the coalition government is pushing through an austerity programme in the face of economic weakness. The US government almost shut down in August because of a dispute over the size of government debt.

Our latest crisis may seem to have started in 2007, with the collapse of the American housing market. But as Philip Coggan shows in this new book, Paper Promises: Money, Debt and the new World Order which he will talk about in this lecture, the crisis is part of an age-old battle between creditors and borrowers. And that battle has been fought over the nature of money. Creditors always want sound money to ensure that they are paid back in full; borrowers want easy money to reduce the burden of repaying their debts. Money was once linked to gold, a commodity in limited supply; now central banks can create it with the click of a computer mouse.

Time and again, this cycle has resulted in financial and economic crises. In the 1930s, countries abandoned the gold standard in the face of the Great Depression. In the 1970s, they abandoned the system of fixed exchange rates and ushered in a period of paper money. The results have been a long series of asset bubbles, from dotcom stocks to housing, and the elevation of the financial sector to economic dominance.

The current crisis not only pits creditors against debtors, but taxpayers against public sector workers, young against old and the western world against Asia. As in the 1930s and 1970s, a new monetary system will emerge; the rules for which will likely be set by the world's rising economic power, China.

Philip Coggan was a Financial Times journalist for over twenty years, including spells as a Lex columnist, personal finance editor and investment editor, and is now the Buttonwood columnist of The Economist. In 2009, he was awarded the title of Senior Financial Journalist in the Harold Wincott awards and was voted Best Communicator at the Business Journalist of the Year Awards. Philip Coggan is the author of the business classic, The Money Machine.

Eurozone QOTD: "You've got insolvent banks supporting insolvent sovereigns and insolvent sovereigns supporting insolvent banks"

Quote is from Bridgewater, which with an estimated $122 billion in assets under management is the world's largest hedge fund.

Previously Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said he didn't expect the next major crisis to hit until 2013, but it appears his firm is positioned for a rocky 2012.

Recapping The PolyCapitalist's 2011 Predictions

For those keeping score three topics I made 2011 forecasts on were:

1. Rise of Android
2. China's bubble
3. U.S. Housing

On Android, the verdict is in:

The U.S. housing market officially double dipped in May and then continued to fall, so that call looks correct as well.

The China prediction is a bit murkier, but here are some points worth noting:

• The Hang Seng and Shanghai stock markets are in a bear market and down roughly 20% for the year, or 30% since May. From its peak in 2008 Shanghai is off 60%.
• Housing prices are softening quickly; in Beijing new home prices dropped 35% in November alone.
• Coastal cities such as Wenzhou and Ordos appear to be experiencing a credit crisis with reports of businessmen leaping off rooftops.
• Hot money appears to be flowing out of the country: China's $3.2 trillion in foreign reserves have been falling for three months despite a trade surplus.

Things aren't shaping up too well for China or trade relations with the U.S. in 2012 either. For more on this see here, here, here and here.

Overall, does 2.5 out of 3 predictions sound about right?

Two more quick ones: bullishness on gold has been a steady theme since starting this blog in May 2010. And how did gold do in 2011? Despite the autumn selloff gold priced in U.S. dollars has returned around 10%. Not too shabby given that the S&P500 is flat YTD. I also managed a correct mid-year bearish call on the euro.

Check back later for The PolyCapitalist's 2012 predictions.

As the Euro Rolls Over, Why Hasn't Gold Rocketed?

In early May of this year, with the euro hovering in the $1.46-$1.48 range, I disagreed vehemently with euro bulls such as portfolio manager Axel Merk who argued that the common currency was no longer vulnerable to a sell-off (see Merk's May 11 FT article titled 'Dollar in graver danger than the euro' and my counter arguments here, here, and here). 

Merk's argument was basically that in 2010, when the euro sank to a low of $1.18, the currency served as a proxy for the sovereign debt crisis. Now, however, investors were shorting sovereign debt directly and, according to Merk, recognized that it is a lot harder for the ECB to print euros than it is for the Fed to print dollars.

For awhile, as you can see from the below chart, it appeared that Merk perhaps had made a good point. From May the euro has shown remarkable resilience; for the last six months one sovereign after another has white knuckled its way through uncertain debt auctions and ever higher interest expense. Meanwhile the ECB kept its 'bazooka' semi-holstered with purchases of sovereign debt apparently capped at €20 billion per week. While the euro did soften from mid-May onwards it was able to keep it's head above the $1.40 mark for the summer and a good chunk of autumn.

Click to enlarge

Continue reading the full article at Seeking Alpha here.

Video: Kyle Bass' Full BBC Hardtalk Interview

"Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without Hell" and other choice comments from the hedge fund manager profiled in Michael Lewis' most recent book, Boomerang.

h/t Zerohedge

Recommended links

1. Why is Greece turning down the “bailout” (Tyler Cowen)

2. Circular commitments lead to a Ponzi economy (Letter to the FT). Here's the key quote:

If governments stand behind banks and banks stand behind governments and the central bank lends freely to both and also underwrites financial markets, then financial asset prices become completely detached from economic reality. In this “system”, the central bank implementing more quantitative easing is no different, in economic terms, from Bernie Madoff marking up his client accounts every month.

3. The Bailout That Busted China's Banks (WSJ)

4. Mr. Hoenig Goes to Washington (Simon Johnson)

5. Bond Dealers See Fed Holding Rate Near 0% at Least Through First Half of 2013 (WSJ)

6. Papandreou Is Right to Let the Greeks Decide (Spiegel)

7. Live European debt crisis coverage (BBC) and (Telegraph)

Video: Niall Ferguson Says Financial Repression Preventing Full-Scale Italian Bank Run

Niall's latest comments on the Eurozone crisis after the jump:

Recommended links

1. Is there a shadowy plot behind gold? (FT)

2. Ray Dalio video interview (Charlie Rose). Ray doesn't have the most compelling television presence, but as the world's largest hedge fund manager he's clearly doing something right. Here is an interesting earlier read from the New Yorker on him and his firm, Bridgewater.

3. Eurozone summit - despair and backbiting in the corridors of power (Telegraph)

4. Steve Jobs Was Willing To 'Rip Off' Everyone Else... But Was Pissed About Android Copying iPhone? (TechDirt)

5. Michael Pettis Talks China (Infectious Greed)

6. €1.5bn Dexia loans used to buy shares in...Dexia (FT)

7. Generation X Doesn’t Want to Hear It (Emptypage)

Video: Kyle Bass on the Worldwide Problem of Too Much Debt

Link to Kyle's video presentation here.

Kyle, btw, is the protagonist in Michael Lewis' latest book, Boomerang. Zerohedge has posted some of the highlights about Kyle from the book here. 

Bloomberg Article on Where to Hide Your Gold

Apparently four feet underground will defeat most metal detectors:

The notion of keeping one’s gold in a safety deposit box—inside the banks many gold aficionados find so untrustworthy—is anathema to many gold bugs. Venzke, who predicts "runaway inflation" and a crisis leading to a "new form of currency within this decade," worries that the boxes won't be accessible if banks shut down in a crisis. "How are you supposed to get your stuff out of there?" he asks. 

Metal detectors are a big worry. Basic detectors can find metal on the surface or in the first 12 inches to 14 inches below ground, depending on soil conditions, says Louis Mahnken Jr., a sales representative for Kellyco Metal Detectors in Winter Springs, Fla. That’s why Venzke advises burying it at least four feet deep. There are online debates about the best way to frustrate such thieves, including using scrap metal as decoys or hiding metal by covering it underground with asbestos or mirrors.

Full article here. 

Video: Keynes on Britain's Departure from the Gold Standard

Greece and Gold During World War II

Reading Timothy Green's The World of Gold  (1968, p. 154-55) I ran across the below quote from a wealthy Greek soap and oil manufacturer from Salonica reflecting back on the war:

'My family changed all their money into gold sovereigns in the winter of 1941 before the Germans invaded Greece. We had at least 3,000 sovereigns hidden behind the frames of four doors in the house. As soon as the Germans arrived, they took over my father's factory and without those (gold) sovereigns we would all have starved. Although we didn't realize it at the time, most of our other relatives and friends had done just the same thing. But my grandfather, who had put his faith in the Greek currency, was left with a bundle of worthless notes. He lost everything.'

Green then reflects on the role of gold in Greece at the time of his writing in 1968:

This experience dies hard. Today the (gold) sovereign is still the backbone of the Greek economy. The country absorbs vast quantities of the gold coins. Six million of them were imported from London in 1965, a further two million in 1966. The Bank of Greece has made some attempt to check the habit by insisting that sovereigns can be imported only with dollars held outside Greece and that all transactions must be registered with the Bank. But such regulations are unlikely to sweep away the customs of many generations. There is a thriving black market in sovereigns. The uneasiness about the future of the monarchy in Greece is not helping to breed confidence in the drachma.

From this it would seem that Greeks have a rich history of understanding the value of gold in uncertain times, which makes it all the more difficult to understand why so many Greeks are still keeping their euros in Greeks banks?!

Is the Bernanke Put Kaput?

As Barry suggests, have we just seen the end of the Bernanke put? Based on the way markets are trading today it would appear Ken Rogoff was right that Bernanke doesn't have the stock market's back.

However, in all likelihood Soros is right about how policymaking powers-that-be will be forced to bailout Too Big To Fail banks should the financial system begin to teeter again. In which case the only real question is for how long can the current central bank shell-game be sustained in a low-to-no growth economic environment?

No one -- not Ben Bernanke, not Alan Greenspan, not Milton Friedman if he were alive, nobody -- knows for sure just how much more room the Fed's balance sheet has before non-negligible inflation kicks in. However, former Fed Chair Paul Volcker for one is starting to get nervous.

Federal Reserve Total Assets ($s Trillions)

(click to enlarge)

Continue reading the full article at SeekingAlpha here.

Video: Jim Rogers on Greek Default, Operation Twist, SNB Intervention & Why He's Shorting Equities

Rogers on how "Bernanke has been lying to us again" and other thoughts on what's happening right now and where he's investing.

End Game: Greece to Default This Weekend?

While the Greek government is publicly denying it (I suppose they have to until the banks close) the game appears to be up (further confirmation from Spiegel here).

The timing of the default would come roughly in line with my prediction. We're also seeing a softening in the euro, now down to $1.36, also as predicted.

In terms of what happens next, the first step following default would likely be a bank holiday in Greece. This would then be followed by some type of devaluation (rumoured to be around 50%) of the reintroduced drachma.

As I posted yesterday, anyone in Greece who still has their euros in a Greek bank may want to move swiftly.

Here is Professor Eichengreen with some deeper perspective and why its likely the ECB is going to be doing a lot of Ctrl+P.