Video: There is No Great Stagnation

Click here for a VentureBeat article summarising Musk's many big ideas.

Video: Richard Duncan on The New Depression

Adventures in Alternative Currencies - Bristol Launches Its Own

The Bristol ten pound banknote

Here is another reason to love the quirky, iconoclastic south western British city.

From the BBC:

It is a direct assault on global trade. The city of Bristol has launched its own currency, which cannot be used in Bath, never mind Berlin or Bombay. 

More than 350 firms in the city have signed up, making it the UK's largest alternative to sterling. 

Unlike previous schemes which have relied on paper, the Bristol Pound can be used online, even by mobile phone.

h/t Tyler 

The Hyperloop - San Francisco to L.A. in 30 Minutes

Good article here on entrepreneur Elon Musk.

The article briefly touches on his lastest, still relatively secret paradigm shifting idea, the Hyperloop.

Ben Bernanke Cannot Print a New Steve Jobs

Gold bulls rejoice, for open-ended QE is here!

Yesterday's Fed announcement wasn't the long rumored 'QE3', as a '3' implies a beginning and an end like the two prior rounds of quantitative easing.

The Fed has instead committed to not stop printing new money until the economy improves.

What then will the Fed do if the economy never improves, meaning unemployment never gets back below 5%? Will the Fed go on printing forever? We shall have to wait and see.

In the meantime anyone who believes that printing money ad infinitum will fix what ails the U.S. economy, or the global economy for that matter, is living in macroeconomic Willy Wonkaland.

Monetary policy in the form of printing new money and changing interest rates does very little if anything to improve the foundational competitiveness of an economy. The most dynamic economies are the ones which are the most productive and most innovative, and monetary policy has very little if any impact on these two areas.

The kind of GDP growth driven by purchases of products like Apple's iPhone reflects real economic growth. The kind of GDP growth derived from nominal GDP targeting (aka inflation) is fake.

In short, Ben Bernanke cannot create new real jobs. Real jobs are created by the Steve Jobs of the world.

However, it's much easier for central planners to punch a few buttons on a keyboard and print more money than to make the long-term adjustments necessary for fundamental economic improvement.

Video: Niall Ferguson Interviews Peter Thiel

2012 Predication #2: iTV Will Prove Apple's Waterloo

Should Apple's all but confirmed iTV make landfall in 2012 I expect that it will serve as a fitting high-water mark for the high-flying tech company.

In this sense perhaps the Battle of Waterloo, which marked the once-and-for-all final defeat of Napoleon, is the wrong metaphor. Instead the Battle of Borodino, a contest which Napoleon won and allowed him to enter Moscow but also ultimately led to his later retreat from Russia in 1812, may prove a better analogy.

All great runs ultimately meet the same fate

I'm sure the iTV will be a huge hit and will make a great addition in Apple's ecosystem. I'm so frustrated with the TV market that it was the subject of a rant a few months back. Let me be clear: TVs are begging for the Apple treatment.

And there is no doubt that Apple will be a successful, highly profitable company for years to come. Apple is more than Steve Jobs, and there is enough magic and momentum to sustain success for the next 3-5 years, at least. But having said all that some recent trends for Apple aren't looking so hot.

Apple is squarely in the competition's cross-hairs and very few -- if any -- companies have historically been able to sustain the level of success achieved by Apple this past decade. And the reasons are well known: people leave, get rich and lazy, retire, distracted, all of the above.

But perhaps the biggest problem will be Apple's own DNA, which is based on cult of personality, not long lasting institutions. Steve Jobs lionized and embodied the Great Man school. In contrast Bill Gates' favorite business book was Sloan's My Years with General Motors, a rather dull treatise on the art of running a large corporation through a series of committees. As so often happens following the departure of a dominant, charismatic leader there is growing talk of an Apple palace coup. Jockeying and politics won't make success any easier in Cupertino.

There is nothing Apple does that can't be replicated, and part of the evidence of that comes from Apple increasingly turning to the courts to fight its battles. Steve Jobs' seethed vitriol from his deathbed over Android's success. Because Apple controls its products end-to-end it has to flawlessly execute by itself every time. But there are literally hundreds of younger, hungrier companies competing with Apple. In some ways the relative demise of Apple is simply a numbers game.

The iTV will likely be insanely great in the way it integrates and simplifies our digital lives, and it is a product I'm very much looking forward to. But I predict that it will also mark the plateau of the greatest run in tech history.

Video: The Great Stagnation vs. The Singularity

For anyone who missed Tyler Cowen's presentation at the Singularity Conference from earlier this year.

Steve Jobs RIP (1955-2011)

The King of the BHAG is dead.

Steve Jobs (1955-2011)

Official statement from the Apple Board:

We are deeply saddened to announce that Steve Jobs passed away today. 

Steve’s brilliance, passion and energy were the source of countless innovations that enrich and improve all of our lives. The world is immeasurably better because of Steve. 

His greatest love was for his wife, Laurene, and his family. Our hearts go out to them and to all who were touched by his extraordinary gifts.

For more reflections on Jobs recent resignation as CEO and some rare, early interview footage of the Apple co-founder see End of a Tech Era.

End of A Tech Era - Steve Jobs Resigns as Apple CEO (Video)

Details here.

Sadly, this is likely grim news as I imagine the only reason Jobs would resign is for health reasons.

The multi-episode documentary Triumph of the Nerds is one of the first films to chronicle the early rise of Mr. Jobs and Silicon Valley, as well as Jobs' legendary rivalry with Bill Gates. It features rare, candid interview footage with Jobs.

Embedded below is the Jobs-Apple focussed episode 3, and if you want to skip ahead to when Jobs comes on go to the 9:45 mark.

P.S. The earlier Triumph of the Nerds episodes 1 and 2 are also on Google Video.

Software Is Eating The World

The tech world was roiled this week by Google's acquisition of Motorolla and HP's corporate makeover. Here's a good read from Marc Andressen (HP board member, VC and Netscape co-founder) on the current state of tech and where things are headed.

My Dream TV Setup and the Present Nightmare

I'm not a huge TV or movie watcher, but I would like to do the following:

1. hang a flat panel HD TV on my wall
2. connect it wirelessly to broadband internet so the only cable I need is the TV power cord
3. use my smartphone or laptop as my remote
4. and (here's the hard part) watch all the world's video content (in full HD resolution when available), whenever I want for a reasonable price.

That's my seemingly simple (in terms of the necessary technology) TV dream.

Now, let me introduce you to the present state, which amounts to a nightmare of massive fragmentation.

TV Hell

Not surprisingly given the money at stake, nearly every major tech firm, media conglomerate, TV manufacturer, along with a number of innovative startups, are angling for a piece (or more often control) of the connected TV market. The result is today's dizzying array of incompatibile and walled off offerings, such as:

• Content sources: iTunes,  Bravia Internet, Hulu, SeeSaw, Plex, Netflix, Freeview, LoveFilm, etc.
• Wireless technologies: WHDI, WiDI, WirelessHD, Wireless USB, WiGig (see Wired's article for more on this topic)
• Devices: separate boxes like Apple TV, Boxee, Revue, Roku, PS3, Xbox, and TVs like LG's Smart TV and Google TV which have features built into the TV itself

The net-net of this media-tech cacophony is consumer confusion and painfully slow progress on delivering a complete wireless HDTV solution.

The failure is not for lack of effort. Google TV tried to bring it all together and promptly had the door slammed in its face by the major U.S. television networks. Scrappy startups like Boxee and Plex have developed innovative offerings, but they lack the heft at present to deliver the goods. On the content side, Hulu is great, but it engages in an extensive game of cat and mouse to keep users from outside the U.S. and Canada from accessing the site. The same is true of the BBC's iPlayer for users outside the UK. Apple has a lot to offer, but Apple TV can't do full HD and the iTunes pricing model makes it significantly more expensive than Netflix. Lovefilm doesn't stream content in HD, only standard definition at present.

It is Netflix, with its large catalogue of streaming HD content, that is perhaps the best of the lot. But it is only available in North America at present and (worse) the company is still beholden to content owners which means it can't control prices (e.g., the recent unpopular price increase).

In short, many have tried but everyone including some of the most creative and powerful companies in the world have failed to deliver wireless, on-demand HD TV.

Keeping the Dream

For now the Big Boys have all decided that, rather than sharing with other kids in the sandbox they're going to try to keep their toys to themselves. But what they fail to realise is that on demand, HD, wireless, anywhere, any device TV is coming whether content owners (Hollywood) like it or not. Hollywood can either get out in front of this tsunami and try to ride the wave of the future, or it will get crushed by it.

The future of TV will look something like Spotify or Netflix, meaning it will be:

• On demand
• HD
• With a comprehensive library of content
• And reasonably priced for all you can watch

When? The wireless and smart device technology exists right now, so it's all about content licensing. It was hoped that 2011 would be the breakthrough year for connected TV, but it's July and I don't see it happening.

Hollywood and content owners are fighting tooth-and-nail to maintain the lucrative status quo for another season. Freeview, talk of Netflix international expansion, and perhaps other important steps are in store for 2012, so here's to hoping we'll see major advances in wireless HD TV next year.