Video: The Great Stagnation vs. The Singularity

For anyone who missed Tyler Cowen's presentation at the Singularity Conference from earlier this year.

Video: Niall Ferguson on Charlie Rose

Video of Niall discussing his new book, Civilization, as well as his current views on the European debt crisis, Turkey's resurgence, and Iran's future here.

Video: Niall Ferguson on China's 'Achilles Heel'

Video: Niall Ferguson's TED Talk on the Great Divergence

Foreskin Man

San Francisco's political battle over circumcision has produced a new comic book character known as Foreskin Man.

Video: Ray Kurzweil on Bill Mahrer

Real Time With Bill Maher: Overtime - Episode... by HBO

Video: Ray Kurzweil on Jimmy Kimmel

Video: Niall Ferguson - The West and the Rest (Chatham House Talk/Q&A)

New Blood Test Tells You How Long You'll Live

The test costs under $1K. Story here.

Video: How to Live Forever (Movie Trailer)

Graphic: Why Healthcare in America is so Expensive

For a quick chart-view on just how much more Americans pay for healthcare click here.


Via: Medical Billing And Coding

Video: U.S. Government Using Your Tax Dollars to Poison Food

At 1.3 million views and counting, below is the video highlighted in the recent NY Times article on how sugar is toxic.

This is a familiar story for anyone who has read the excellent Omnivore's Dilemma or seen the movie Food, Inc. (both can be found in the 'Good Books and Films' box on the right side of this blog). What may be less familiar is the fact that the U.S. federal government is directly supporting the poisoning of the American public through fructose (corn syrup) subsidies to Iowa farmers.

Please allow me to repeat that: our government is helping to poison us with our own tax money.

While some members of Congress are working to put an end to this deplorable policy, Big Food, the farm lobby and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) have thus far successfully fought off cuts to corn subsidies.

A perhaps more fundamental way to get a handle on this problem is by replacing the income tax with a consumption tax (which I've written about here).

As an aside, has anyone out there heard Warren Buffet, Coca-Cola's largest investor, address what Dr. Lustig calls the 'Coca-Cola Conspiracy'? It would seem that Warren is turning a blind eye to the fact that he is financing one of the nation's (and now the world's) fastest growing and most serious health epidemics.

Film Review: Transcendent Man & Reflections on San Francisco Premiere

Ray Kurzweil in Transcendent Man

On Thursday evening I attended a showing of the film Transcendent Man at the San Francisco Palace of Fine Arts. The evening included a pre and post-film talk/Q&A with the film's star, Ray Kurzweil, and the director, Barry Ptolemy. Peter Diamandis of the X Prize Foundation was also on hand to moderate.

Here are my thoughts on the film:

• The film is well made and provides a very up-close and personal look at inventor, scientist and futurist Ray Kurzweil, including a tour to Ray's home, his 200 vitamins-a-day regimen, and a moving visit to his father's grave.
• In terms of the content level it aims for a more general audience, making the film accessible to non-science types. You'll see a few graphs but you won't find any math equations or overly technical jargon in the movie.
• The film provides an intimate look at some of Ray's and the Singularity's more interesting proponents and critics, such as Kevin Kelly (founder and 'Chief Maverick' of Wired) and Dr. William Hurlbut, Professor of Neuroscience at Stanford University (who was in attendance).
• If you're someone who is already familiar with Ray's exponential technology development forecasts and his ideas about the Singularity you might find some of the the content less fresh, even repetitive. However, if you're a fan the I think you will still really enjoy the film.
• One criticism I have of the film and Ray is that while there is ample mention of the many predictions Ray has been right about (e.g., predicting in the early 1980s that a computer would beat the best human chess player by the late 1990s), there was no mention of Ray's wrong predictions. Predicting the fall of the Soviet Union and other happenings is impressive, but it would be even more impressive if I knew more about Ray's overall track record.
• Another question I have is the potential bias Ray brings to his forecasting. It cannot be overlooked that Ray is projecting that radical life extension will arrive within his expected lifetime. How much does Ray's self-optimism factor into this timing forecast?

And some thoughts on the overall event and what it's like to meet Ray:

• The Palace of Fine Arts event (not surprisingly) attracted an eclectic, rather geeky crowd. In terms of demographics, largely caucasian with a wide age distribution.
• What was surprising was that unlike the previous showings in London, New York, LA, etc. the San Francisco event (the last in the tour) did not come close to selling-out. This is particularly surprising as the San Francisco Bay Area is arguably Ground Zero for the Singularity movement. Whether this was due to the fact that there was a previous San Jose showing in February, or that the film has been available on iTunes for awhile now, is unclear. Back-to-back showings in LA both sold out.
• A couple interesting points made during the Q&A: 
• Ray stated that there is a mistaken perception that technological progress is occurring much faster with hardware than software.
• The cost of solar power is quickly approaching the cost of fossil fuels.
• Ray stated that technology is a "doubled-edged sword" and does not dismiss potential dangers to the human race to advancements in technology.
• Ray says he reads all his email and tends to make decisions about big things (like Barry's movie proposal) quickly and agonize over small things, like where to eat lunch.
• Ray was very generous with his time throughout the evening. There was a pre-movie meet and greet where I was able to speak with Ray in person. I confessed to Ray that I haven't been as disciplined in following the diet advice in his excellent health book, Fantastic Voyage, as I would like. 
• Ray is one of the most even-keeled people I've ever met. He is also is very diplomatic and kind with his responses during the Q&A.

Overall, I highly recommend seeing Transcendent Man. The film is currently available for viewing on iTunes, online here, or you can purchase the DVD through the 'Good Books and Films' section on the right side of this blog. 

For more from me on life extension, the Singularity and Ray click here.

Video: Animated Visualization of Japan's Nuclear Meltdown

Video: Transcendent Man Movie Trailer (Featuring Ray Kurzweil)

Chart of the Month: Healthcare Bang (or lackthereof) for the Buck

This one is so outrageous that it deserves more heft than the usual Chart of the Day, or Week title.

(click to enlarge)

In fact I almost dubbed it Chart of the Year, but to be prudent I wanted to to wait a little a longer to see how this chart plays out.

Education Site: Those interested in careers in healthcare and healthcare reform, might be interested in Guide to Online Schools degree and certificate programs in the medical field.

Podcast: The Immortalization Commission - Science and the Strange Quest to Cheat Death

Link to podcast here.

During the late nineteenth century and early twentieth century science became the vehicle for an assault on death. The power of knowledge was summoned to free humans of their mortality. Science was used against science and became a channel for faith.

John Gray is most recently the acclaimed author of Black Mass: Apocalyptic Religion and the Death of Utopia, and Straw Dogs: Thoughts on Humans and Other Animals. Having been Professor of Politics at Oxford, Visiting Professor at Harvard and Yale and Professor of European Thought at the London School of Economics, he now writes full time. His selected writings, Gray’s Anatomy, were published by Penguin in 2009. The Immortalization Commission: Science and the Strange Quest to Cheat Death is published in February 2011.

Preview: Niall Ferguson's Civilization - The West and the Rest

Niall Ferguson's new book, titled Civilization: The West and the Rest, will be released shortly on March 3. An accompanying six-part Channel 4 television series premieres on March 6 in the U.K.

Here's a preview:

If in the year 1411 you had been able to circumnavigate the globe, you would have been most impressed by the dazzling civilizations of the Orient. The Forbidden City was under construction in Ming Beijing; in the Near East, the Ottomans were closing in on Constantinople. 

By contrast, England would have struck you as a miserable backwater ravaged by plague, bad sanitation and incessant war. The other quarrelsome kingdoms of Western Europe – Aragon, Castile, France, Portugal and Scotland – would have seemed little better. As for fifteenth-century North America, it was an anarchic wilderness compared with the realms of the Aztecs and Incas. The idea that the West would come to dominate the Rest for most of the next half millennium would have struck you as wildly fanciful. And yet it happened. What was it about the civilization of Western Europe that allowed it to trump the outwardly superior empires of the Orient? 

The answer, Niall Ferguson argues, was that the West developed six “killer applications” that the Rest lacked: competition, science, democracy, medicine, consumerism and the work ethic. The key question today is whether or not the West has lost its monopoly on these six things. If so, Ferguson warns, we may be living through the end of Western ascendancy. Civilization takes readers on their own extraordinary journey around the world – from the Grand Canal at Nanjing to the Topkapi Palace in Istanbul; from Machu Picchu in the Andes to Shark Island, Namibia; from the proud towers of Prague to the secret churches of Wenzhou. It is the story of sailboats, missiles, land deeds, vaccines, blue jeans and Chinese Bibles. It is the defining narrative of modern world history.

May 1st Update: Just finished watching the full six-part television series, which you can view for a few more days here. It was excellent and I highly recommended it.

I did spot one perhaps small nit: in episode six on 'Work', Ferguson describes American inventor Thomas Edison as the "alternating current (AC) king" of electricity. Whether or not this was another nickname for the "The Wizard of Menlo Park", it was fellow inventor Nikola Tesla (along with perhaps George Westinghouse) who can lay proper claim to being the true AC King. Edison was a fierce opponent of AC in favor of his own alternative (and inferior) direct current (DC) system.

To associate Edison with AC as Ferguson does is at best historically incomplete, or worse perhaps misleading.

2045: The Year Science Makes Humans Immortal?

Ray Kurzweil

For my money it just doesn't get any more bleeding edge than the 'Singularity'.

A good read published in Time yesterday on this topic, and radical life-extension, featuring inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil, Cambridge Professor Aubrey de Grey, investor Peter Thiel, and others at the forefront of this (for lack of a better term) movement.

From the article:

The more you read about the Singularity, the more you start to see it peeking out at you, coyly, from unexpected directions. Five years ago we didn't have 600 million humans carrying out their social lives over a single electronic network. Now we have Facebook. Five years ago you didn't see people double-checking what they were saying and where they were going, even as they were saying it and going there, using handheld network-enabled digital prosthetics. Now we have iPhones. Is it an unimaginable step to take the iPhones out of our hands and put them into our skulls? 

Already 30,000 patients with Parkinson's disease have neural implants. Google is experimenting with computers that can drive cars. There are more than 2,000 robots fighting in Afghanistan alongside the human troops. This month a game show will once again figure in the history of artificial intelligence, but this time the computer will be the guest: an IBM super-computer nicknamed Watson will compete on Jeopardy! Watson runs on 90 servers and takes up an entire room, and in a practice match in January it finished ahead of two former champions, Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter. It got every question it answered right, but much more important, it didn't need help understanding the questions (or, strictly speaking, the answers), which were phrased in plain English.

The idea of the Singularity first hit me like a lightning bolt a little over a decade ago when I read Sun Microsystem co-founder Bill Joy's alarming Wired article titled Why the Future Doesn't Need Us. I've been fascinated and trying to wrap my mind around the many potential implications of exponential technological development and living indefinitely ever since.

The Antithesis of Idle Chitchat

If you're looking for a way to spice up your next dinner party or bar conversation then I encourage you to trot out the idea of science making immortality a reality within your lifetime.

As noted by Kurzweil, people can more easily accept the idea of superhuman HAL-like computer artificial intelligence in the foreseeable future than banishing death. Based on limited anecdotal observations women in particular seem to have an almost viscerally negative, knee-jerk response when first confronted with the notion that the necessary technological advances could arrive in their lifetime.

In fact I have yet to encounter a single woman that responds positively at first blush to the idea of living forever. Perhaps the only thing this reveals is a homogeneity amongst my circle of female friends and acquaintances. But it has led me to wonder whether there is something fundamental to radical life extension which makes it more appealing to men?

Personally, I don't think so. Rather I think this is a case of a big, hard to fathom idea traumatically upending the perceived natural order of life's apple cart. Once you get passed initial concerns over things like quality of life (living long but as a gimp or vegetable) or what this means for romance (and concepts like soul mates) then some women soften up their initial distaste for life extension.

I for one love the idea of extending life indefinitely! There is so much I would love to learn, see, and do; to one day catch a sunrise on planet Mars and then climb Olympus Mons, a mountain almost three times as tall as Everest!

So far as I can imagine there is simply nothing else which would more profoundly alter life as we know it than the Singularity and radical life extension. However, their prospect raises tectonic moral, philosophical, socioeconomic, and security implications. Joy's concerns, which are shared by Kurzweil, must be addressed.

Below is a video of a 17-year old Kurzweil during his 1965 television appearance on I've Got a Secret, and here is a link to his most recent television interview on Charlie Rose where he describes the Singularity.