Tuesday, October 18

Ever Heard of Somaliland, the Peaceful and Democratic Neighbor of Somalia?

Somaliland's flag
Contrary to the piracy and kidnappings which the media tends to focus on positive things are happening in parts of the Horn of Africa.

Somaliland is one such example. President Ahmed Mohamoud Silyano describes his people's quest for international recognition here.

Here's the BBC's profile of Somaliland.
Though not internationally recognised, Somaliland has a working political system, government institutions, a police force and its own currency. The territory has lobbied hard to win support for its claim to be a sovereign state. 
The former British protectorate has also escaped much of the chaos and violence that plague Somalia, although attacks on Western aid workers in 2003 raised fears that Islamic militants in the territory were targeting foreigners. 
Although there is a thriving private business sector, poverty and unemployment are widespread. The economy is highly dependent on money sent home by members of the diaspora. Duties from Berbera, a port used by landlocked Ethiopia, and livestock exports are important sources of revenue.
Information about traveling in Somaliland, including guidance on safety, can be read about here.

Monday, October 17

Links to Chapters in Michael Lewis' New Book 'Boomerang'

Besides a new preface, which Zerohedge has done a nice job highlighting here, Michael Lewis' new book Boomerang is a collection of his previously written stories about the financial problems of various European countries and one U.S. state (California).

Below are links to each of those stories in the order of their publication. They're all worthwhile and still very relevant.

 1. Wall St. on the Tundra (Iceland)

2. Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds (Greece)

3. When Irish Eyes Are Crying (Ireland)

4. It’s the Economy, Dummkopf! (Germany)

5. California and Bust (California)

Video: Kyle Bass on the Worldwide Problem of Too Much Debt

Link to Kyle's video presentation here.

Kyle, btw, is the protagonist in Michael Lewis' latest book, Boomerang. Zerohedge has posted some of the highlights about Kyle from the book here. 

Interactive Global Debt Clock


Courtesy of The Economist
The clock is ticking. Every second, it seems, someone in the world takes on more debt. The idea of a debt clock for an individual nation is familiar to anyone who has been to Times Square in New York, where the American public shortfall is revealed. Our clock shows the global figure for all (or almost all) government debts in dollar terms. 
Does it matter? After all, world governments owe the money to their own citizens, not to the Martians. But the rising total is important for two reasons. First, when debt rises faster than economic output (as it has been doing in recent years), higher government debt implies more state interference in the economy and higher taxes in the future. Second, debt must be rolled over at regular intervals. This creates a recurring popularity test for individual governments, rather as reality TV show contestants face a public phone vote every week. Fail that vote, as the Greek government did in early 2010, and the country can be plunged into imminent crisis. So the higher the global government debt total, the greater the risk of fiscal crisis, and the bigger the economic impact such crises will have.
h/t zerohedge

Wednesday, October 12

No, No, No: Erin Burnett, the Government Bank Bailouts Were Not 'Profitable'

Oh boy.

On location at Occupy Wall Street, CNN's Erin Burnett is perpetuating the myth that government bailouts for banks were profitable for taxpayers.

Here, here, here and here are my previous posts about why this is not true.

In short, it's misleading to claim that the bank, or Wall Street, portion of the government bailouts (called TARP) is profitable without referencing the trillions in other bailouts provided by the Fed, the ongoing support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (which could cost taxpayers trillions), and other taxpayer support which directly and indirectly bailed out Wall Street beyond just TARP. The reason is that the recipients of the government bailouts are intricately connected. Wall Street had (still has?) vast real estate holdings, so the support provided to Fannie/Freddie and the Fed's purchase or mortgage backed securities were second and third bailouts, respectively, for Wall Street on top of TARP.

Erin, it is fallacious to promote a myopic view that the government got its money back and then some on the TARP tranche of the government bailouts.  You need to also look at where taxpayers have not yet received their money back (Fannie/Freddie) or are still exposed (Fed's nearly $3 trillion balance sheet). To do otherwise is to engage in an incomplete, inaccurate and deceptive accounting of the bailouts.

For those interested in more detail line-by-line accounting of the various government bailouts can be viewed here.

Monday, October 10

Default Myth Busting: Sorry Simon and James, the U.S. is not a Default Virgin

Professor Simon Johnson and James Kwak of The Baseline Scenario have an article at Vanity Fair about the geopolitical importance of credit in late-18th century France, Great Britain, and (especially) the United States. Their article, however, fails to mention an important detail which also happens to contradict their claim that "the (U.S.) federal government would always honor its debt".

The consolidation/conversion of U.S. revolutionary state debt into federal debt, which took place in the early 1790s, and which the authors refer to in the paragraph prior to the above quote, represented a U.S. sovereign default. (For more on this event see Reinhart and Rogoff (click on the U.S. tab) or Sylla, et al, which describes the 'haircut' bondholders received (6% to 4%).)

The notion that the U.S. has never defaulted has unfortunately been repeated often enough that, like the incorrect claim that TARP was "profitable", otherwise well-informed people have come to believe it.

In terms of other U.S. defaults, Reinhart and Rogoff also count Franklin Roosevelt's 1933 prohibition on owning gold and the subsequent devaluation of the U.S. dollar vs. gold as a default.

It's not very surprising to see Vice President Biden promoting the myth that the U.S. has never defaulted (in his case following a visit to the U.S.'s largest creditor, China). Professor Johnson, however, should know better.

Bloomberg Article on Where to Hide Your Gold

Apparently four feet underground will defeat most metal detectors:
The notion of keeping one’s gold in a safety deposit box—inside the banks many gold aficionados find so untrustworthy—is anathema to many gold bugs. Venzke, who predicts "runaway inflation" and a crisis leading to a "new form of currency within this decade," worries that the boxes won't be accessible if banks shut down in a crisis. "How are you supposed to get your stuff out of there?" he asks. 
Metal detectors are a big worry. Basic detectors can find metal on the surface or in the first 12 inches to 14 inches below ground, depending on soil conditions, says Louis Mahnken Jr., a sales representative for Kellyco Metal Detectors in Winter Springs, Fla. That’s why Venzke advises burying it at least four feet deep. There are online debates about the best way to frustrate such thieves, including using scrap metal as decoys or hiding metal by covering it underground with asbestos or mirrors.
Full article here.