Friday, May 28

Tea Party success, M3 shrinking, whiffs of deflation equal a chink in Gold's armor?

In the time that has passed since Tea Party candidate Rand Paul & Co.'s wakeup call victories I have been keeping an eye and ear open for perceptible changes in the political discourse.

Fresh out of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue earlier this week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton today spoke about managing the U.S. debt problem as key to the country's ability to project power and influence abroad. Now, it would be surprising if former candidate Clinton did not opine on just about any topic under the sun. But it is somewhat unusual for a Secretary of State to weigh in on a U.S. debt problem.

The European debt crisis cast a large shadow over the annual Chimerica talks. While no official announcement was ever made China's growing unease over the European sovereign debt crisis and the possible implications contagion poses for China's massive investment in U.S. treasuries was a hot topic.

One potential outcome of the Tea Party's results is the effect it could have on further government largesse. Mid-term elections are just around the corner. Vulnerable incumbents must be thinking twice about casting even more votes that can be criticized for putting the federal government on the path to bankruptcy.

But is it too late for incumbents to change their ways? This evening may have provided a hint as Congress was unable to pass a $200 billion tax and unemployment benefits extension. Benefits for hundreds of thousands of Americans will now expire on June 2. This is especially surprising given that very pro-unemployed Democrats control both houses of Congress.

Should these political trends combined with inflation rising at the slowest pace since the 1960s and the U.S. money supply declining at the fastest pace since the 1930s be giving gold investors, like myself, reason for concern? Is the current case for gold, contrary to what "all-in" billionaire gold investor Thomas Kaplan woud have us believe, not bulletproof?

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