Wednesday, August 25

Goldman Sachs Says Fed's Next Money Printing Move is Imminent: "No Point in Doing Anything Less Than $1 Trillion"

Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius yesterday said that the Fed is going to have to eventually print more money to tune of $1 trillion+.

In other words, the Fed's recently announced 'QE Lite' simply won't cut it. Hatzius figures are in line with estimates for QE 2.0 (the term that has become attached to the next massive round of Fed money printing) that I've been pointing towards for awhile.

In terms of the timing of QE 2.0, Goldman Sachs Chief Global Economist Jim O’Neill said "September might be a little bit soon, but by October I would say for sure if the data carries on being as disappointing as it’s been."

Given that market confidence is clearly deteriorating, why won't the Fed act sooner? I've recently wrote about my ideas on timing here. Ken Rogoff, the Harvard economist and author of the only economic history bestseller This Time is Different, recently appeared on Charlie Rose. He suggests that the Fed is hesitating because they're "nervous about overshooting". Aiming for 3% inflation, the Fed may miss their target badly and wind up with 30% hyperinflation. However, Rogoff states the "Fed will have to take that chance".

The U.S. dollar has held its ground so far, but concerns are rising about ongoing record budget deficits and what the government will do about the massive mortgage market problem that is Fannie and Freddie. The terrible housing figures are coming in spite of record low mortgage rates, housing prices 33% off their peak, and federal government subsidized mortgages for even Manhattan condos that require only 3.5% down payment. Perhaps most importantly, the now all but certain QE 2.0 makes the future value of the dollar anything but certain.

From an investment perspective, any move by the Fed to print more money is bullish for gold.

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