(Note: in the hours following confirmation of bin Laden's death various maps purporting the location of the bin Laden compound were circulated by the mainstream media. In the interest of maintaining the chronology of these releases, and to highlight some of the astute comments made on this post, I've kept the two inaccurate map sets in the order they were circulated. The final, accurate satellite image from 2010, along with the CIA diagram of the compound, can be found at the bottom of this post.)
Osama bin Laden was killed today
(unconfirmed death photo here, WARNING: graphic) about 100 kilometers outside Pakistan's capital of Islamabad. The op was carried out by the Special Forces 'legendary' (in both the literal and figurative sense)
Seal Team Six.
The Location
Bin Laden was located in the relatively posh part of Abbottabad, Pakistan called Bilal Town. The compound itself was located a short distance from the Pakistani military academy (the "West Point or Sandhurst of Pakistan" as it's being characterized).
The Compound
His five-to-six year old property, believed to have been purpose built to hide the ultimate 'High Value Target' (HVT), was three stories tall and approximately eight times larger than any other nearby dwelling. Other key details:
- 12-to-18-foot walls, topped with barbed wire
- Internal walls sectioned off different areas of the compound
- Access was restricted by two security gates
- Closed-circuit cameras positioned around the property
Yet bin Laden's "mansion", as it has been characterized, did not have a phone line or internet. The couriers, Afghans brothers named Arshad and Tariq who were also gunned down by ST6, did not report any income and had no visible source of wealth. They also burned all their own trash. Neighbors also reported that the women who were living inside the house spoke in Arabic and not the local dialect.
Assessing Bin Laden's Hideout Strategy & What Did Pakistan Know?
Bin Laden's choice to hide near Pakistani military installations and in a residential community of retired Pakistani officers strikes me as both intriguing and suspicious. Less wise, perhaps, were some of the activities noted above, like burning the trash and not having a phone or internet line.
In short, Bin Laden stopped just short of hiding in veritable plain view. Did his failure to go all the way here do him in? One thing we do know is that the U.S. was only able to locate bin Laden by trailing his courier back to the compound in August 2010, and the whole reason bin Laden had to employ the services of a courier was due to his aversion to phones and the internet.
This location at least gave bin Laden some chance as the first assassination option considered by President Obama, employing B-2 Stealth Bombers, was abandoned due in part to the likelihood of collateral damage.
Bin Laden apparently lived in this compound for the last 5-6 years. This raises very important questions about how much Pakistan, or elements of Pakistan's military and intelligence service, knew about the whereabouts of bin Laden. The U.S. has sent billions of dollars to Pakistan over the past several years to help find and kill people like bin Laden.
Was bin Laden's thinking on where to locate influenced by his correct calculation that the U.S. was unlikely to drop a bomb or conduct a Predator drone strike on this particular location? In turn, was bin Laden expecting a tip from Pakistani intelligence should any planned U.S. Special Forces assault to be attempted?
The Map, Satellite Imagery, & Compound Diagram
From the below maps,
sourced from The Atlantic, you can see that it was located very close to a police station.
|
(click to enlarge) |
And below is the pinned version marking bin Laden's compound (B) and the nearby police station (A).
|
(click to enlarge) |
Update 1: As a commenter pointed out the exact location of the compound appears to be unclear. Here are the satellite imagery of the compound's surrounding area and closeup from the above Google maps
sourced from The Atlantic.
|
(click to enlarge) |
|
(click to enlarge) |
Update 2: Here's a second Google Map with corresponding satellite imagery of the compound,
sourced from the Huffington Post. This location is in nearby Bilal Town, a newer development a couple miles from Abbottabad:
|
(click to enlarge) |
|
(click to enlarge) |
|
(click to enlarge) |
Update 3: As an astute commenter pointed out, based on an evaluation of these
compound photos (which include a daylight image of the scuttled MH-60 Seahawk Helicopter; nighttime footage of the burning wreck
here) these previously reported locations are not correct.
Below are the maps for the now CIA confirmed location of bin Laden's compound:
|
(click to enlarge) |
|
(click to enlarge)
|
The following two satellite images appear to be circa 2004-2005.
|
(click to enlarge) |
|
(click to enlarge)
|
This satellite shot is from 2010 and shows some of the other dwellings that sprouted up around bin Laden since 2004-2005 that are clearly visible in recent
compound photos.
|
(click to enlarge) |
And here is the diagram, complete with dimensions and other pertinent op information, that the CIA just released of the actual compound.
|
(click to enlarge) |
The location on the map and that of the satellite image are about 5 kilometres apart. Which is it?
ReplyDeleteGood catch. I added updated maps. I'm inclined to believe it's the first set which matches the Google maps given all the reports that his compound was so close to the police station.
ReplyDeleteI am more inclined to think it is the second set, given the first set is in Abbottabad while the second set is located in Kakul which you find is also the location of the Pak Military Academy, also when you look at both sets, the second seems more isolated and it is more plausable that a helicopter attack can be carried out on the second set as opposed to the 1st set of pics, besides when you type in Abbottabad in Google Maps you will see that it shows almost the same location as the proposed location in the 1st set, it seems someone just typed in Abbottobad and stuck a marker on the largets building they could see in one the map. From a security point of view, the buidling in the first set does not seem very secure when you compare it to the second building. But my question is why was the body disopsed of so quickly why was it not brought back for an independant international examination, this was after all a joint war on terrorism and not just a US effort, I can understand the need for secrecy before and during the operation, but why afterwards did the US not invite its suports in this war on terror to also verify the kill.
ReplyDeleteThe body was reportedly disposed of quickly in line with Islamic burial custom (within 24 hours of death).
ReplyDeleteOne advantage of disposing of the (presumably incinerated) body at sea is to prevent the erection 'terrorist shrine', which any bin Laden's tomb would invariably become.
I would highly doubt that they have disposed of the body - not without doing a very complete autopsy first. Too many unanswered questions about the man, his health and how he managed to remain in hiding for so long - there has not been enough time to do this and likely his remains will be returned to the US (I bet in pretty poor shape due to the usual heavy weapons used by US military in this type of assault), before being quietly incinerated. We'll never know.
ReplyDeleteI bet the autopsy had been performed by the time news about the body being disposed at sea was reported.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, your theory certainly seems plausible, except for one element: if the body was kept beyond today for further forensics then I predict someday, perhaps not until many years into the future, we will know.
Neither is correct. Coming from someone who has experience analyzing satellite photos, there are several things that are noticeable. First is the placement of trees. Look in the news photos, neither of these buildings has the trees in the right places. Second, the skyline is wrong. Use Google Earth, and look around while comparing the angles with the news photos. The hills in the background aren’t close enough to either location.
ReplyDeleteThe correct location is here...
ReplyDeletehttp://maps.google.co.uk/maps/ms?hl=en&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=203515038895354994169.0004a24def2da113398ff&ll=34.168547,73.243157&spn=0.006711,0.009559&t=h&z=17&lci=org.wikipedia.en
Many of the news pictures show power line towers very near by. These are hard to spot on sat pics but its possible once you find one, you can then track it right to the house.
ReplyDeleteCIA release Bin Laden compound location http://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-of-bin-ladens-compound-2011-5
ReplyDelete34.169231,73.242622 in Google earth
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Abbott%C4%81bad,+Pakistan&aq=0&sll=34.957995,52.734375&sspn=55.627498,83.583984&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Abbott%C4%81bad,+Abbottabad,+Khyber+Pakhtunkhwa,+Pakistan&ll=34.169317,73.242725&spn=0.001753,0.002551&t=h&z=19
ReplyDeleteThanks for all the comments and astute observations.
ReplyDeleteI've updated the post with now confirmed maps, as well with the CIA's diagram of the compound.
The newly released sat pictures of the compound look nothing like the house in the raid pics on CNN, ABC, CBS etc. No houses near by and the building doesnt even look the same. Of course the sat imagery that us mere mortals have access to is 6 years old.
ReplyDeleteIndeed.
ReplyDeleteThere have been reports of a significant increase in building and development in the bin Laden's neighborhood in the five years since his compound was constructed.
So I wonder if the reason the Google Sat imagery doesn't show the same structures as the actual on the ground photos of the compound is because the sat imagery is simply out of date?
Yeah, you know that having the #1 most wanted target has got to be good for property values in the neighborhood so I imagine by now there is a waiting list for new houses!
ReplyDeleteKeep up the good work Poly! You have info here Im not seeing anywhere else.
the Pentagon reporter Jim Miklaszewski showed an animation of the two navy seal helicopters dropping down on a Square-ish compound, and a firefight broke out in an alley-like area. the CIA compound showed a traingular area, and barely resembles any alley-like area.
ReplyDeletesee http://www.kfiam640.com/cc-common/news/sections/newsarticle.html?feed=104668&article=8512818
The last image matches the Dept of Defense image that has been posted online, so that is probably correct. The other location on GMaps have buildings too close to the compound.
ReplyDeleteGoogle map was way off. google earth as it but the shot is old and there have been additions to the property since the imagery was put together last.
ReplyDeletefinally Bin Laden has killed but who will pay the one decade killing of Afghan innocent people by the name of Taliban and Al Qaeda Pakistan or USA?
ReplyDeletewill USA trust on Pakistan after that they killed Osama in Pakistan presidential palace of Zardari? or the will Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. that was the real face of Pakistan and ISI the founder organization of terrorism.
Correct/verified links to Google Map location, White House Press briefing satellite photo and diagram:
ReplyDeletehttp://j.mp/mke9lW
..of Osama Bin Laden's compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.
Got location on Google Earth:
ReplyDeleteLat: 34°10'9.33"N
Long: 73°14'32.73"E