Tuesday, May 3

Analysis: Bin Laden's Hideout Strategy and Pakistan's Lack of Credibility

Osama bin Laden was living and killed about 100 kilometers outside Pakistan's capital of Islamabad in a relatively posh part of Abbottabad, Pakistan called Bilal Town.

The compound itself was located a short distance from the Pakistani military academy (the "West Point or Sandhurst of Pakistan" as it's being characterized). Detailed maps, satellite imagery and the CIA's diagram of the compound can be viewed here.

The Lair

His five-to-six year old property, believed to have been purpose built to hide the ultimate 'High Value Target' (HVT), was three stories tall and approximately eight times larger than any other nearby dwelling. Other key details:

  • 12-to-18-foot walls, topped with barbed wire
  • Internal walls sectioned off different areas of the compound
  • Access was restricted by two security gates
  • Closed-circuit cameras positioned around the property

Yet bin Laden's "mansion", as it has been characterized, did not have a phone line or internet. The couriers, Afghans brothers named Arshad and Tariq who were also gunned down by ST6, did not report any income and had no visible source of wealth. They also burned all their own trash. Neighbors also reported that the women who were living inside the house spoke in Arabic and not the local dialect.

Bin Laden's Hideout Strategy

Bin Laden's choice to hide near Pakistani military installations and in a residential community of retired Pakistani officers strikes me as both intriguing and suspicious. Less wise, perhaps, were some of the activities noted above, like burning the trash and not having a phone or internet line.

In short, Bin Laden stopped just short of hiding in veritable plain view. Did his failure to go all the way here do him in? One thing we do know is that the U.S. was only able to locate bin Laden by trailing his courier back to the compound in August 2010, and the whole reason bin Laden had to employ the services of a courier was due to his aversion to phones and the internet.

This location at least gave bin Laden some chance as the first assassination option considered by President Obama, employing B-2 Stealth Bombers, was abandoned due in part to the likelihood of collateral damage.

Was bin Laden's thinking on where to locate influenced by his correct calculation that the U.S. was unlikely to drop a bomb or conduct a Predator drone strike on this particular location? In turn, was bin Laden expecting a tip from Pakistani intelligence should any planned U.S. Special Forces assault to be attempted?

Who Does Pakistan Think They're Fooling?

Bin Laden apparently lived in this compound for the last 5-6 years. This raises very important questions about how much Pakistan, or elements of Pakistan's military and intelligence service, knew about the whereabouts of bin Laden. The U.S. has sent billions of dollars to Pakistan over the past several years to help find and kill people like bin Laden, and the American public should insist on an answer.

Pakistan has publicly denied knowing that bin Laden was within its borders. But if that's true it makes Pakistan look incompetent, particularly in light of the fact that Pakistan's most powerful man, General Ashfaq Kayani, the chief of staff, was within shouting distance of bin Laden last week giving a talk at the military academy on how Pakistan had broken the back of terrorism. More from The Economist on on the logic behind why Pakistan may have been providing bin Laden safe harbor:
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More likely, but no more attractive for the likes of the ISI, is that at least some in power in Pakistan knew that Mr bin Laden had been forced by American drone attacks to shift from a mountain hideout to this urban shelter. On this score Mr bin Laden (and probably others, such as the Aghan Taliban leader, Mullah Omar, who was reported earlier this year to have been taken by the ISI to Karachi for medical treatment following a heart attack) was being afforded some measure of protection by Pakistani officialdom. Why? Perhaps so that he could be used, one day, somehow to promote Pakistani interests among fighting groups in Afghanistan, or perhaps so that he (bin Laden) could be used as leverage over the Americans on a “rainy day”, as one Afghan intelligence officer speculates.
Let's be clear about Pakistan's motive: the longer bad guys like Osama bin Laden, Mullah Omar, and the presume new Al Qaeda boss, Ayman al-Zawahiri, are kept alive, then the longer the billions in U.S. dollars in development and military aid will keep flowing to Pakistan.

From 2002 to 2010, the U.S. gave $13.3 billion in military aid to Pakistan, and $6 billion for economic development. Over $3 billion has been requested for 2011. Calls for U.S. forces to pull-out of Afghanistan will only grow, which will have a destabilizing effect on Pakistan and the wider region. It's no surprise to see that Congress is already moving to cut Pakistan's billions of dollars in annual U.S. economic and military aid.

As Pakistan plays their double-sided game, the U.S. Congress and President Obama need to think seriously about how much good all this aid is really doing in the fight against terror.

The history between Pakistan, the U.S., and the region is long and complex and for those familiar with it it really shouldn't come as a surprise that Pakistan was harboring bin Laden. For further reading I highly recommend Legacy of Ashes, by Tim Weiner, and in particular Ghost Wars, by Steve Coll. You can find both books in the 'Good Books and Film' section on the right side of this blog, and here is a recent interview with Steve Coll, David Ignatius of the Washington Post, and Dexter Filkins of the New Yorker.

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